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Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (OREX) Message Board

  • bg_rox2001 bg_rox2001 Feb 3, 2011 1:51 PM Flag

    My predictions

    This stock will trade mostly sideways swinging +/- 5% until something is announced.

    Within a month, I see the following possible scenarios:

    1) company announces they are dropping Contrave to focus on other drug = -50% PPS

    2) company announces they are going to continue contrave to satisfy Phase III and resubmit to FDA - WITH TAKEDA 50/50 funding = +100%

    3) company announces they are going to continue contrave to satisfy Phase III and resubmit to FDA - WITHOUT TAKEDA (sole financing) = -25%

    4) company announces they reached an agreement with FDA for limited release of Contrave, while continuing the study to satisfy their requirements (obviously with Takeda splitting funding) = +500%

    Specifically, people are awaiting their negotiations with the FDA. Is the trial going to take months or years? Is it going to take 50 patients or 500 patients? These things all determine the costs associated with the study and the time/$$ it will take to fund it.

    The primary catalyst for the huge potential here is timing. Right now, there is no competition. ARNA and VVUS are at least 12-18 months from marketability (if ever). The first to release to market will be substantially well positioned to capture market share estimated to be upwards of $2-3B annually.

    There is substantial risk here as this company does not have a plan B. They are not diversified. They are solely reliant on a drug market that is being repeatedly shot down by the FDA.

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OREX
5.63+0.18(+3.30%)Jul 11 4:00 PMEDT

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