Several friends of mine are trainers at New Oriental, and they'll all say the same thing: "no one is signing up for classes". In some cases enrollments are a fraction of prior training periods. I walked by the collections department of New Oriental headquarters, and noticed a handful of people in the lobby--last year, you could barely squeeze into the room. Something is off here...
I don't think so . it will be big improvement because of movie named "American dream in china". It will stimulate chinese parents to enroll classes in The New Oriental. In china, children are the most important for parents. the parents can do whatever to help theirs kids.
There isn't anything to "think" about. It is a fact--enrollments are down significantly. Here are more facts about New Oriental, the "American Dream in China"
1) On the last earnings beat, New Oriental didn't raise guidance for the full year (i.e., they expect weakness in future quarters)
2) There is a hiring freeze in the company
3) They recruited new teachers for the summer several months ago and now have no classes for them to teach because demand is that low
4) Management invested heavily to get top of the line growth, and is now left with substantial, underperforming assets with almost no potential for revenue expansion
5) Management "doesn't know how to grow the company" (i.e., the market has matured)
6) New Oriental management doesn't want to innovate into new product categories (i.e., they will die trying to do the same thing that worked for them in the past)
7) Competition is fierce, and there are low barriers to entry. I know of at least 10 people that have left New Oriental over the past 5 years and have started very successful rival firms (not competing in all of the same verticals as New Oriental, but focusing on one or two and doing it very well)
8) New Oriental pays high school principals in China bribes to promote New Oriental programs, such as winter and summer camps. This its part of doing business in China, I get that, but I am pretty sure the SEC would have a different take on the situation
The propaganda film is ironic, given that New Oriental is widely know to cheat customers in several ways, such as pushing hopeful study abroad students into low-tier foreign universities where New Oriental gets a commission (good for New Oriental's bottom line, however unethical, and horrible for students),