Not exactly sure how they estimated this nor how credible it is, but if Germany holds at 4gw I'd be thrilled. 8-9gw for countries like Germany and Italy are not sustainable unless there was a major policy shift which required a seachange of electricity production. Whatever Germany starts to stabilize at this year will represent real demand since FIT rates have and will probably completely drop below grid parity. The near term problem is no one knows what real supply is until all this liquidation ends. Apparently q1 was still over supplied.