Over 500MW in work in South Africa, belongs to well know Chinese companies out of initial 1.4GW leading to 8GW in next few years. Yingli announce 288MW of Golden Sun projects on the top of 224MW in the US alone. There a lot of projects out there. Actual mono modules went up due to lack of mono cells for 125mm size. No module manufacturers are stopping production but anyone without orders is not building inventory any more. New rules in place to eliminate marginal exporters. 31 companies shipped over 890MW of modules globally and most of the big names did not export as they work big at home. Pricing has stabilized to 0.65 level, take the low utilization non-poly costs are around 0.46 per watt, with poly being around 0.10 (Hanwha data)
something definitely is starting
For the past 4 years, volume has always increased. The problem has been ASP declines have outpaced profits. You are now at a point where ASP of $0.65 you identify (could be $0.60) will not decline much if any. The costs you indicate of $0.55 is a better case scenarion that grosses $0.10 per watt. TSL is at near $0.15 in Opex aond $0.03 in interest, YGE is close to $0.20. YGE is $0.07 in interest alone.
Stick with fundamentals. You have laid out the cost part, now they need to pull in the Opex and interest parts. Who can and who can not without major debt restructuring is not really a debate anymore. YGE LDK STP all too much debt, Similarly those companies have too much cost per watt in Operational expenses.
A company like YGE, stated costs of around $0.48 bottom end of 2013. The $0.55 you mention is about right for them near term. With the ASP at $0.65 them make at best $0.02 when fully utlized. That is only at best $40M in gross net profits. Sure it is profits but it is also with a PE of 8 a value around $2-$3. TSL mirrors YGE in price and costs. The differenc TSL has 80million shares. That puts them at $0.50 gross top end(unlikely). A PE of 8 is what a price of $4?
Like I say follow fundamental earnings, not demand but profits and operations.