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dELİA*s AŞ Message Board

  • whatudontknowcouldhurtu whatudontknowcouldhurtu Apr 29, 2003 10:10 PM Flag

    This is very similar to what happened

    with MIR a few weeks ago. They have a history of postponing and delaying audits and earnings reports. However, the last time they announced a delay, the CEO (Marce Fuller) came out and said she was very optimistic about refinancing the company's long term debt. Everybody predicted a major correction on the following morning, but instead the dip was minimal and the floor was put in. The stock has since gone up over 100%. (BTW, they still haven't release any numbers!)

    I agree with whomever said that one quarter's earnings is not what will make or break this stock. In this market, real investors with longer time horizons than the typical daytrader are interested in news that will ensure long term viability. That's when they invest. They want to see that the company will be around when the economy turns around.

    I think with the extension of the credit facility BK is no longer a threat. DLIA will survive. And as for getting the $2.9M mortgage refinanced at more favorable terms, that is almost guaranteed to happen now. As for raising an additional $2M in equity capital, that will be easy enough. A little dilution, but hey, the float is small to begin with. At a discount (say .30/share, just a guess) some agressive private buyers could come in and pick up about 6.5M share, for a dilution of about 14 percent, hardly worth losing any sleep over! I'm not saying this is how this thing will play out. I have no idea. But these numbers are clearly manageable and institutional investors will see this.

    I expect some volatility in the AM, maybe a dip to around .28, followed by a recovery to the mid-.30s on decent volume (over 3M shares). Give it a week or two and we should be right back to the mid-.40s. I'm loading the boat tomorrow morning.

    Good luck to all.

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