I agree...most LtL firms are struggling. However, I have maintained because of YRCW's massive decline in share price, plus the uncertainty of the Union contract, (although there seems to be more clarity on this now) this stock is undervalued.
If you read through many of these posts, there is a tremendous amount of anger on this message board....many want to be the so-called experts on the stock.
I think depending on several factors, this could easily be back to the $20-22 range. I think there will be some major restructuring announced after the first of the year which the market will view as a move in the right direction.
Thanks for your post. The person I referred to works for a large national transportation firm - and he was uncharacteristically bearish for transport firms in general right now.
You are right about the anger - which leads me to another question - how would you rate the quality of YRCW management? In my 20+ years of investing I've come to appreciate how important that really is.
Your suggestion about restructuring makes sense - however I think we need several factors to move the stock forward (1) lower fuel prices (2) a perception that tight credit markets have at least bottomed and have begun to ease (3) a stabilization or better yet improvement in capital goods markets (4) labor peace within the company.
My sense is that YRCW shares are near their bottom - though I'm still not rushing to buy. $20s by mid-2008 seems reasonable.
Fuel costs mean nothing as long as there is the fuel surcharge practice, which Yellow has used to it's advantage boosting operating income without growth. Also, in the question of quality of management, too many of the middle and upper management has come from the sales ranks with little or no operations experience. This experience is critical to operating well through the maze of complex work rules.