Ross is their LTL Analyst
i read it to say YRC continues to lose share and sales people however he does indicate they are still around which people didn't expect... enjoy
See attachment for details and important disclosures and certifications
3Q09 preview comments — We believe conference calls are unlikely to be bullish. Our sense is that industry volumes are still weak relative to a normal October, even with the cash-for-clunkers boost, inventory restocking (or at least the end of destocking), and any impact from the fiscal policy stimulus program. So, the sustainability of the freight rally is a big question mark, in our view. Plus, some shippers and carriers continue to put pressure on pricing (lower), fuel surcharges (lower), and payment terms (longer). Meanwhile, YRC continues to operate (but is still losing freight/market share and sales people), allowing the pricing pressure to remain unchecked and margins to suffer from the excess industry capacity.
We expect 3Q09 EPS for some carriers to be worse than 2Q09 and for some to be slightly better than 2Q09, but our bias is to the downside. Most LTL stocks have pulled back from their initial run-up this summer, as YRC Worldwide has not disappeared like some had predicted.
We continue to recommend Con-way (CNW; Buy) and Vitran (VTNC; Buy) as our top LTL stock picks, although we do not expect great 3Q09 reports from either. Moreover, we reiterate our Sell rating on the shares of YRC Worldwide (YRCW; Sell) due to the company’s large market share and financial losses, high cash burn rate, possible dilutive debt-for-equity swap and lack of competitive advantage.
Wow, 13 days before the November 2, 2009 plunge and Rvegagold was all in. Now I see how he lost so much money.
The pumpers didn’t learn last October not to go all in and the pumpers in April don’t understand any better.
aye aye cap'n cheney, you have fun going down with the ship. i see a nice warm rescue ship on the horizon. we'll be sure to wave as we depart. yes, even if we're only using one finger, it still counts as waving.
Chart looks like it is forming a double horseshoe parabolic with articulated candlestick accent pushing ahead of a triple C (Claven cliff climb)!
Oh chart readers, please tell us what this means!
Never mind balance sheet fundamentals, positive earnings, cash flow, or industry conditions…. like ole RVE once told me, industry knowledge doesn’t tell us anything here… need to listen to the pros here like himself.
Hey RVE, how’s that predicted $6.00 - $8.00 coming along? You know, the price that was going to be hit by October 13th?
Oh I forgot… you did make a revision in that… $5.75 - $7.75.
What a joke.
Everyone who blindly pumps here without paying attention to facts or those who know the situation are within 8 or so trading days from a rude awakening.
Things like profits do matter.
Ultimately, that is ALL that matters.
(oh yeah, the chart thing above… that was a joke).
"just a passenger on the YRC Titanic... looking for a lifeboat"..............well xxyrcwxx, you are an employee on this ship, not a passenger. We expect you to act professionally. If you want to jump ship, be our guest. The water is very cold. And you don't qualify for a lifeboat. I think you need to ask the captain what you can do to help save this ship. You standing on the main deck bitching isn't going to help you.
you may believe that YRC's long term potential is to the upside, but at this point it's clearly a day trade since the possibility of failure is very real. since you're only in it to make money, i'm surprised you're not shorting it at this point. there's been enough information volunteered by employees for you to put together a picture of what's going on internally.
if i'm still employed by YRC when the first 25% of my 'equity shares' vest in january and the market price is above the strike price (I think it was 3.34) then I'll sell quickly... that's how little faith i have in YRC's leadership to turn around the company. besides, i could use the pocket change, which is all it will likely amount to.
one serious question for you:
given the way YRC is handling things lately (delaying news/results, lots of bullsh*t press releases, more wage concessions) do you really believe the results on Oct. 30th are going to be positive enough to move the share price higher? management has made promise upon promise this year that the latest concession will finally turn things around only to turn in horrendous results and then take more concessions.
just a passenger on the YRC Titanic... looking for a lifeboat.
This is true. No reason to sell now. They will get a bump when new loan arrangements are announced. They continue to slash cost. I see CNW stock sliding as a sign that YRC will battle on for another quarter. And IF 3rd qtr has a surprise to the positive, could easily double. A downward surprise would be showing in CNW pps.
This will be one of the better than expected stocks for 3rd quarter numbers, however I wouldn't put it past that for 4qtr09. This is not the time to buy (as apparent to their stocks today). Wait for 2010.