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U.S. Geothermal Inc. Message Board

  • markkoshinski Mar 23, 2013 11:49 AM Flag

    Ok MR. RAFTER. What is your thinking on this stock

    We want to know why it was not going up... we finally found out . I finally after all these months of stock searching found one. we shall see what happens next.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • mark, I would have to refer to nami comments, they gave away a lot trying, and the delay in the Gov money did not help, but they got it done and the plants are running. Not sure what nami and others think they would have done better. A lot of people are waiting for the 10K, to get some clarification as to how much HTM mgrmt gave away and what they will get, but most importantly, the on going revenues.

      So listen to chicken little and sell, or fly with the eagles and buy more...3 days to go

      • 5 Replies to stockrafter
      • If I had to bet whether the company will survive and flourish or decline and perish, I would say 65% chance of suriving and thriving and 35% chance of dying. Not a sure thing, but I really think management is good. Building these projects always has risk. No one could have predicted the SAIC debacle. But they seem dedicated, diligent, and smart. I will say this, so much time has passed since the last update they gavem, makes me think, everything is running like clock work, or something bad happened and they are just stalling to send out a press release and they will look to do a news dump/release at the end of the day later this week to try and hide it. But if we get to the press release date, March 28, with no bad press announcements before the earnings, then we are in business. Debt is pressurizing. Just getting some cash in the bank from a good earnings release will help to pay down debt a little and make everyone breath a bit easier and make HTM less susceptible to the slightest bad luck that may come along. It's very tenuous now. They are operating on a razor thin margin or error.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Mark, I am not going to lie. When I saw stockrafter defer to nami, it sent a chill down my spine, as foreign and unsettling as if someone were to say the sun rotates around the earth, instead of vice versa. I agree with stockrafter, in that a moderate slice was given away. Had that not been given away the SAIC debacle didn't happen, then the stock would be poised to be 3 to 5 dollars either at 2012 year end of by mid-year 2013. But, again, from a pure accounting perspective, I can tell you that positive gross margin is very attainable. Then from there, positive Operating Income is very reachable. On the balance sheet, the Current Ratio (Current Assets divided by Current Liabilities) is less than 1.0 which is a bad sign, however the total assets exceed total liabilities, which is good. On the Cash Flow Statement, the 'free cash flow' is (Operating plus Investing Activities) is quite bad. But that is to be expected. Overall, this business model lends itself to a tough beginnings, because of all the up-front costs. First things first, -- need to have positive gross margin. Then, need to have positive Operating Income. Then, have enough Operating Income to absorb Interest, Depreciation, Taxes etc, to get to bottom line being positive. From there, the balance sheet gets cleaned up and off the to races. This is a delineated minset. But all the expectation should be for the 10Q for Q1, is simply to have positive gross margin at a minimum. If they get positive Operating Income, then it is 'gravy' at this point. Reaon being, is that this company is at its lowest right now. It only gets better from here. More cash makes the Income and Balance Sheet shine, and that will light a fire under the stock price to increase. Again, the only numbers that matters on March 29 - 10Q is that Gross Margin #. Anything above that would be 'beating expectations'.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • That's really rich, stock. "Not sure what nami and others think they could have done better." You must be joking?
        Time and again I've identified specific, concrete examples of the numerous screwups by mgt, starting with the TOTALLY DISASTROUS and MIND-BOGGLINGLY negligent way that the SAIC-San Emidio 'temporal' performance clauses of the contract were written, and the myriad and wholly negative financial consequences that ensued. Not to mention the incredibly protracted stalling my mgt in coming clean, which really that have yet to do. All such feeding on the 'markets hate uncertainty' sydrome,' and voila--the longstanding dismal stock price. And yet a recent post talking about $2/share by the end of 2013--thus $.50 better than markie's prior looney-tunes prediction!

        You et al remain no less than in total denial. Remarkable collective mindset!

      • markkoshinski Mar 24, 2013 5:02 PM Flag

        Ok now listen up here... I said all this little talk about something going to happen after the earnings report .... Is that just talk or what. I think someone pulling aces out of their sleeves now. I think someone knows more than we do ... I agree that Goldman Sachs had a piece of the action but when I went back to look at the 2nd report Goldman had no stake in this company. What happened?? Did the company sold it back to US GEO. and what ever happened to that extra 3 mill from the 11 million they got . That should be reported in this quarter report too, along with all the income from the power plants being up and running. The other million should be reported on the next quarter. MR Rafter I don't know what to think anymore but you agree with Nami is just the tip of the iceberg
        Maplevine, You take it from here.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • In Q3-2012, they had GP of -435K and another chunk of 400K of Operating Expenses for a total Operating Loss of 835K. I really think that with all the power cranking out now in the 4th quarter, even if just for half a quarter, they should be able to clear a positive gross margin (easily) and then also clear a positive Operating Income line on the income statement. I don't care too much right now for what the interest expense, depreciation etc, lines on the income statement at this point. Those are not as significant economically. If HTM can generate 1 quarter's worth of positive Gross Margin and Operating Income lines on the Income Statement, that is HUGE !! Even if it is just $1 dollar's worth Operating Income. That is a huge first step ! It represents that the business is viable and a long - term enterprise. Heck, even if they didn't meet that target and met the target in Q2, 2013, given the fully quarter's worth of operating plants, that would be ok as well. Once the cash tumbles in for 2 quarter's or so in a row, it then becomes a cash machine and stock price will go up from there ! Even with the varied ownership interest of Lincoln, Goldman Sachs, etc, there is plenty of profit to drive up the stock price to $2 bucks at least by the end of 2013. Then as the stock price goes up, more people come on board and the Cash line on the balance sheet will increase due to the regular accounting entries upon purchase of stock (ie; Debit Cash, Credit Common Stock and Credit Additional Paid in Capital for the difference). Textbook.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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