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U.S. Geothermal Inc. Message Board

  • wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 18, 2013 1:52 AM Flag

    Heres some light reading, and a disscusion topic below .

    Kevin Rafferty
    Geo-Heat Center
    Also I would like to have a discussion with on Guatemala, and estimates for plant size and financing.

    Because I Dream of one day waking up and seeing an announcement when I log on here, and it reads US Geothermal Declares Building of a (50NET MW plant ,100% owned).!!! Financed by a Guatemalan loan guarantee with low interest and Grants!!!. Then I come to the yahoo msg board and see Marki posting""" Yippie guy's!!! and Nami saying it'll ''never work look at past management'' !! That's all I want .Quick someone take me to the make a wish foundation!!!!... hopefully there's no age limit..

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    • I am concerned about US Geo and Guatemala.
      Earlier this year I had the opportunity to sit down with Kunz and openly discussed this issue. Although he has assurances from the Guatemala government that the plant would be secure he had to concede that there will be more armed security persons on site than maintenance staff. That' gives me sleepless nights.
      I suggest the way forward is to complete deepening there latest drill hole, verify the actual bottom hole temperature and flow rates. If its 550F you are talking double/triple flash which is the most efficient type of plant. By then we will have spent less than $1M on the site, sell the leases to Ormat for a healthy profit($10-20M).
      Lets spend our money where we have more control in a safer business environment. If we are going outside the USA for projects there are better locations than Guatemala.
      Just my opinion..

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 3 Replies to parto3frp
      • The potential myriad problems with an operation in Guatemala is what I've posted about more than once previously, most recently last week.

        Why HTM would want to take on such risk when it is already saddled with a number of negatives, is simply looney tunes.

        Guatemala hardly provides the same protections for private property as in the U.S., among other obvious concerns, inc. the 'seismic issue.'

        Finally, I'm ever fascinated by the posters who periodically express their hope that the stock price falls still more, so they can buy more. Huh? It sure hasn't taken long for the stock price to drop about 25% after recently hitting a high of $.61 achieved just before the recent earnings anouncement.

        So how account for the recent quick run up in price? I've seen this movie many times before. It's called 'front running a stock,' which happens particularly with low priced/penny equities like HTM.

      • good stuff wrenn, paro, and others, as someone mentioned, I did skim through the Ormat 10K, and they do express some concerns with their two plants in Guatemala, worth looking at. They are operating two plants, Zunil (24MW), and Amatitlan (18 MW), and are planning on expansions. Could not break down the expenses and incomes of each plant.

        Not sure if I could form an opinion one way or another on Guatemala, just hope Gilles knows. Do agree the Raft site would seem easier to add another unit, but there must be reasons not to, which I think they were mentioned years ago, but forget what they were at the moment.

        Quotes from 10K....

        1) Guatemala . The General Electricity Law of 1996, Decree 93-96, created a wholesale electricity market in Guatemala and established a new regulatory framework for the electricity sector. The law created a new regulatory commission, the CNEE, and a new wholesale power market administrator, the AMM, for the regulation and administration of the sector. ....., in order to promote the development of renewable energy power plants in Guatemala. This law provides certain benefits to companies utilizing renewable energy, including a 10-year exemption from corporate income tax and VAT on imports and customs duties.

        2) Our foreign operations are subject to significant political, economic and financial risks, which vary by country. As of the date of this annual report, those risks include the partial privatization of the electricity sector in Guatemala, labor unrest in Nicaragua and the political uncertainty currently prevailing in some of the countries in which we operate. Although we maintain political risk insurance for most of our foreign power plants to mitigate these risks, insurance does not provide complete coverage with respect to all such risks.

      • I can respect that, However having the resources with the buyers at hand ,and paying 145$ what I believe to be a premium is worth far more than the 20 mill now . Let’s say they build this plant 60 million in revenues every year, that is what I believe is worth the risk and capital. This company needs a Flagship to bring in more investors, if they sell their position in Guatemala I’d have to sell my position in HTM, I feel this is our power play .did you get an estimate or hint at what the yearly cost might be for this added security? I’d be willing to pay a million or 2 yearly for added security measures to protect the assets . hope your weekend is going well

        Sentiment: Hold

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