Very simple look for those new to HTM, look year over year and if you like what you see from 2012 to 2013, you will be blown away by what happens in 2014. Things that changed and now will remain the same going forward all plants are now finished with the shakedown and are running as to be expected. The PPA's all increased in January will reflect in Q1 and forward. Year over year comps going forward a poor quarter will drop off and a much improved quarter will be picked up through the end of the year. The in 2015 we will have new production coming on line and beyond that there is solid growth in the pipeline.
Allen, it seems you are much more sure about new production than management is. And where are the funds for the new production coming from? E2 needs $12 million. Guatemala almost $150 million. Where's it coming from......cash on hand $14 million, with $100 million in liabilities already?
I agree with your initial assessment, we are in decent shape moving forward. I just don't hold your rosy view for the near term. We are holding at the new normal for awhile, IMO. Call it .60 to .90 range, (avg .75) based on news. Q1 will see another pulse. Q2 a downer. Q3 evens. Q4 significant uptrend into new earnings.
This is staying at an "accumulate the dips, sell the rises in the near term" for traders. Buy dips and hold for investors.
While I think there is some manipulation (especially by day traders), there is warranted concern for the debt load to cash on hand. I know HTM payed down both long and short term liabilities, but I can understand why there is caution moving forward.
They really can't do anything they are talking about without A) more debt... or B) a partner that puts up money and splits the revs. Either option will cause investors to seriously pace themselves. At least they didn't talk about an equity raise at this point.... the stock would've seriously tanked yesterday.
We are looking fine going forward, for now. But be realistic.... this is a long term situation, even moreso than I had posited previously.