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CalAmp Corp. Message Board

  • jjohns8181 jjohns8181 Oct 4, 2013 6:56 PM Flag

    Big Q

    Constructive answers plz. Since I sold as usual anyone think we go back in a month or two to test 20s area. Or even 19s


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    • Like Sarge said, it's a tough question. I suspect you may have a lot more confidence one way or the other within a week. If we are at or below $23 by end of the week, then it may be possible the stock will eventually trickle down to 20-21, especially in the last 6 weeks leading to the next earnings release. On the other hand, if in a week the stock has gotten even higher, well... It may then have built up enough of a buffer that when it does pull back off whatever the near-term peak is, it won't ever touch the levels you mentioned.

      Some questions to remind yourself of are... Are you willing/able to commit to the stock again for the long term (1+ years), and where do you ultimately see the stock price getting to then? Do you believe in the $30 price target? (If the stock hit $30 in 1 year, that's a 30% return from $23!). The longer you are comfortable with holding, the less you will end up caring if in the short term you buy back in quickly and possibly end up paying $1-2 more per share than you could have paid later this year. If you don't buy back, you risk the possible alternative -- what if the stock instead heads to, say, $25? You'll feel even more uncomfortable about getting back in, and you'll have missed out in the added rise.

      Put another way... As a matter of discipline I had sold off some shares this year in the mid $12's. I then ended up buying more shares around $15. Sure didn't like paying that "$2.5 more" at the time, but I knew I "had to". A few months later and it is long since forgotten, I'm just happy as hell I bought back in to "max allocation".

      IMO, one thing that is different here than any times in the past few years.. I was always able to justify buying back at a higher share price based on fundamentals at the time. This time however, we're past the P/E I'd normally be comfortable with. But growth stocks tend to do this, and many others have run far harder yet they were loaded with debt and/or weren't even profitable.

    • Tough, tough question. All I can say is, as a rule, Camp USUALLY fills in a gap. But Camp has also been known to scream off into the blue and not look back, only to collapse much later on. (But you must remember that was a very different Camp, structurally). She's a stock that can both punish greed, yet reward patience. It's the balance between the two. Ask yourself where your contentment lies, then execute that contentment without looking back. Remember, the perfect trade is usually an accident. Try to find the Zen-like inner calm that comes with knowing you've done the best you can, given the information you've got. Good luck.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • jjohns, two major, positive chart moves have just occurred. A breakout of a "base on base" formation (5 days ago) on volume and a gap up on huge volume (yesterday). This story has legs. However, we could test the gap, which is now support, before moving higher. If we have a "break away" gap, which is another strong technical move and don't close it, there will be another consolidation phase again. A breakout from the future consolidation or a retest of the gap will be places that I will add to my position. And, I have not added any shares to my position, since the pullback at $9.75/sh on low volume in April.
      Best I can offer. Hope it helps,WP~

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

13.39+0.18(+1.36%)Oct 21 4:00 PMEDT