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MannKind Corp. Message Board

  • diabeticinvestor diabeticinvestor Oct 31, 2010 10:08 AM Flag

    Anyone else here also in BIOD?

    It's looking like biod may get their approval. Could see a 800% move up with 40% of the float short.

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    • Daviscupper is over on the BIOD board pumping BIOD. This means it's heading lower...CRL received. Daviscupper will then say, 'I didn't see that coming'. What say yee Smitty???

    • The JPM news came out early enough to spook a few shorts and opportunistic new buyers to get it to $8.38 in the pre-market.

      Then the tug of war began and that's why it settled in the $7.70 range having hit as low as $7.48.

      Up to eight months to another decision with no guarantee of approval makes me think it should retrace to the $6.50 level.

      I'm still expecting Mannkind to retest the $5.00 level prior to approval.

    • I expect a CRL, but I also expect that most of the stock price carnage is over.

      I previously sold my BIOD for a 20% gain when it was in the low 5's (lucky, not smart) and bought a small position (1500 shares) averaging 4.09

      I have sold Nov $4 and $5 calls, (average 1.10 - wow, over 25% of the share price!) which will protect me down to just into the 2's.

      If there is approval, I'll have a 50-60% return. If the share price gets crushed, I will incur a loss. If it trades only mildly down, I'll make a modest gain.

      The silence this weekend has me thinking CRL, but to me it doesn't matter. I can't unwind my position in the pre-market since I have to cover my calls before I can sell my shares. I'll have to sit by and watch the pre-market volatility. Maybe I'll sip some Maalox (lol).

      Why did I invest in this way? The calls were waaaaay too expensive to buy, so I decided that instead of paying the casino on speculation, I would be the casino and take someone else's bet.

      I make a great return on a price spike, a moderate return on flat to mildly down, and my losses are moderated by the call premium if the share price collapses.

      No emotion here - I just looked at the math & ignored the bashers & pumpers. Low premiums = buy the calls. High premium = sell the calls. As simple as that, esp when the premium seems to totally fund the risk.

      Good luck to the many MNKD investors playing BIOD this week. It's interesting - I see the same 20 names all over the biotech message groups. A few of them (not me) dared to hold AVNR and are really happy right now. That would have been a PERFECT covered call play. I'm kicking myself for not having invested. Oh well - I'm still learning.

      Derek

      • 1 Reply to dereklinders
      • "Sounds like a very sound approach to the Biodel situation."

        "I'm thinking that Biodel receives a CRL which will require an additional trial using the pen injector."

        "The company has already stated that it would go to market with the pen injector."

        "Situation is somewht similar to Mannkind having submitted the original NDA with the Medtone device knowing that it would launch with the Dreamboat device."

        "The situation with the India trials are the big question mark here."

        "In any event, good luck with whatever occurs over the next 24 hours."

 
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