DNDN at its peak was worth almost 10 billion....which was an extremely controversial product and treated a much, much smaller demographic. Of course, it was extremely expensive, too...but, if DNDN could reach that... Is not 20%+/- of that amount or around $25 a reasonable expectation?. A four bagger from here is definitely a homerun.
70 million diagnosed diabetics in the first world.
Insulin should be, but is currently not, the front line treatment for all of them. The reason it is not the front line treatment is because injected insulin takes a long time to disperse throughout the body, and therefore HAS TO BE a relatively slow release time formula, creating all kinds of problems (weight gain, hypoglycemia risk, dosing complexity). So most of these 70 million are taking oral drugs until the latter stages of the disease, when there is no other choice but to go on insulin.
With Afrezza, the listed problems of injected insulin do not exist, and the disease will never progress to the latter stages in patients who are put on Afrezza.
Assume only a 10% penetration, i.e. 7 million patients, times $1000 per patient per year (a very conservative estimate), and you have 7 billion in sales. Even with a moderate royalty rate, this translates into $2 billion in net profit for Mannkind. For a 24 billion market cap, you need a PE of 12.
And that is only 10% penetration, in the first world (US & Europe) only. There are another 100+ million diagnosed diabetics in China, India, etc... who have the same problems and needs, and there is no competition in sight for Afrezza as the onlly treatment to address those needs.