This is actually how I think about this. Time will tell, I guess.
1. The Trial Management team told MNKD management that due to the amount of data, the new Trial Management System and requirement for Red Team / Governance / Management reviews and preparation of a management discussion presentation, the Phase III analysis and presentation would not be complete until Mid-August.
2. Management discussed and realized that they wouldn't be able to meet their financial reporting deadline if they held off financial results until mid-August.
3. Nobody brought up "what will that do to shareholders in the short term" since management cares about approval, not short term volatility.
4. Somebody came up with the idea of moving out the conference call until both topics could be combined in one call after trial results so that they could keep Al from making any provocative "bold statements" on the call before data was fully analyzed.
5. MNKD publicly stated a somewhat vague "Mid August" or "A few days after earnings release" and seem to be sticking to it.
Simple, but kind of boring.
Named after the 14th century logician William of Occam, it is the principle which favors the least complicated of two or more possible explanations for an observation.
Until proved otherwise, the more complex theory competing with a simpler explanation should be put on the back burner, but not thrown onto the trash heap of history until proven false.
Agree and good post. Also they get sued if they have any errors so best to triple check everything and then check again before releasing any statements. Risk aversion that's conservative and warranted.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What would have been the harm in sticking to the normal CC schedule (having the CC on the afternoon of the Quarterly release) and then having a separate PR or CC for the data results a week or two afterwards?
I think Dereklinders covered that very well in the original post above. The company did not want members of executive management (especially Al) talking to the public who have knowledge of the preliminary trial results until the analysis is complete. That is why Matt did the presentations at the last investor conference, and made it very clear that the information regarding the trials had not been shared with him.
If one goes back and reviews how long it took Mannkind to analyze the data from prior phase three studies before releasing the info to the public, one would realize that Mannkind's staff is working as hard as possible to get the current phase three data released to the public as soon as possible. They set themselves an extremely aggressive timeline, to analyze the current phase three data, and everyone that thinks that MNKD is taking way to much time on this don't have a clue what they are talking about.
Hi pfg_01 I have been trying to ascertain how long it took MNKD to crunch the numbers in their last PIII study. I am finding the announcement of positive data 9/16/08 but I can't find a date for when the studies were completed? Do you have this information? It would be great for comparison to see how long they took in the past to crunch the numbers? Thx.
I think you're spot on, PFG. (Of course, why wouldn't I? You agree with me!)
I suspect the current volatility and selling pressure eases the danger of a "sell the news" reaction when the results are released.