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MannKind Corp. Message Board

  • bty79403 bty79403 Mar 31, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    What I expect.

    Today we will close near the low of the day. The panel will give a near, (if not fully), unanimous vote to approve. Gains will be limited by a huge wave of short selling, but should still be 50+% gain from today's close. On the 15th the FDA will approve both T1 and T2 with a BB label for smokers, ashma, COPD, and a large scale post marketing study to ensure lung safety. The same pattern will apply, with a huge wave of short selling. I'll be suprised if we even see $7+ in the immediate aftermath of approval, and even if we do, it won't last long. The price will then drift, and stagnate for a while, at that point this will become a screaming hot buy.

    I will buy today, and sell on Wednesday, buy back before the approval decision and sell straight after, wait a few weeks then buy and hold.

    Good luck to all.
    Cheers,
    Mick

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Great strategy. Bump.

    • I was anticipating $10-12 after Adcom. Had a sell order in for a few shares at $9, 10 and 12. I am revising my estimates on post approval pps to $10-12. Either we longs were too emotionally attached and had pie in the sky dreams of where this should be or we have factors working against us that are much stronger than imagined. Either way, it is extremely disappointing.

    • OK, the first phase went better than expected with a 100% gain, (not too shabby for 2 days). Now looking for the re-entry point. The obvious downside to the strategy is the possibility of missing the re-entry and being left on the sidelines, so I can understand if it's not appealing to the ultra longs. I'll certainly start to add if we see the 5's at all. otherwise I'll look to add two or three trading sessions before the 15th depending on the price and prevailing winds at the time. I still think that there will be a bear raid between now and the 15th, though it could be relatively shallow. The pop on approval wil be transient, it may also be shallow, but I'm hopeful of a 30% gain before they bring it back down.

      Don't be too suprised to see this trade at pre-approval values with a full approval, (T1 + T2). The key hedge fund that is running the show here, is also short on pretty much every development stage bio out there. They have a vested interest in covincing investors, that if you're right , you lose a little, and if you're wrong, then you're wiped out. They want all investors to stay away. That however, does create some post approval bargains, which is what this will become. The buy and hold is where the big gains will be made. A couple of other de-risked bargains are CHTP, and my personal favourite, BSDM.

      Good luck to all,
      Cheers,
      Mick

      • 2 Replies to bty79403
      • If what's happening is confusing to you, then you might want to read this thread.

      • This MB is becoming unuseable, and not by accident!

        For those who missed it, as someone was very busy bumping posts

        OK, the first phase went better than expected with a 100% gain, (not too shabby for 2 days). Now looking for the re-entry point. The obvious downside to the strategy is the possibility of missing the re-entry and being left on the sidelines, so I can understand if it's not appealing to the ultra longs. I'll certainly start to add if we see the 5's at all. otherwise I'll look to add two or three trading sessions before the 15th depending on the price and prevailing winds at the time. I still think that there will be a bear raid between now and the 15th, though it could be relatively shallow. The pop on approval wil be transient, it may also be shallow, but I'm hopeful of a 30% gain before they bring it back down.

        Don't be too suprised to see this trade at pre-approval values with a full approval, (T1 + T2). The key hedge fund that is running the show here, is also short on pretty much every development stage bio out there. They have a vested interest in covincing investors, that if you're right , you lose a little, and if you're wrong, then you're wiped out. They want all investors to stay away. That however, does create some post approval bargains, which is what this will become. The buy and hold is where the big gains will be made. A couple of other de-risked bargains are CHTP, and my personal favourite, BSDM.

        Good luck to all,
        Cheers,
        Mick

    • Agree. Initial gains will be limited to $7 to $9 range until the real FDA approval comes and the CRL is avoided. Some will still be scared about the CRL with all the negative press MNKD has received

    • Are you watching?

      Cheers,
      Mick

    • This sucks in my view, but oh well. they knocked it so far down that a 50% gain isn't squat now. Your talking maybe 6 bucks. It was at 6 a few weeks ago.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to blackjackaces
      • Of course it sucks. It's a bullying tactic. They call it a mitigation strategy, but it's bullying, nothing more, nothing less. Those notes were about as clean as I've seen in a long time, ADCOM notes are always negative, always, always, always. You live, you learn, you improve, it's all about experience.

        Cheers and good luck,
        Mick

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Yes, that would be an optimal play of events. But,,, if a yes on tax day, the knock out partnership blow will be delivered within days. I'm not buying, but not selling either. I still feel bill daub knows more than most here.

    • rxdavemull@sbcglobal.net rxdavemull Mar 31, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

      I agree but lung disease patients were never a target population for Afrezza so I don't know why this topic is gathering a life of its own.Warnings can always be issued in the black box if required.It should not be the cause of a rejection.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to rxdavemull
      • Totally. If someone has lung disease, is it even conceivable to think that they'd be inhaling ANYTHING without their doctor's express approval? Let alone something that can only be obtained by a doctor's prescription, such as Afrezza? No.

        That aspect of this dust-up is the dumbest ploy ever. How sad that it works every time.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • This is my plan/expectation as well. It's nice to see someone with a good strategy.

    • jstokcton@gmail.com jstokcton Mar 31, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

      With a favorable Adcomm, there is the possibility of a partnership. Keep that in mind.
      Otherwise, good luck.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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