Mannkind will have their expenses to date made whole before any profit sharing occurs. If Afrezza makes $600 million in gross margin, depending on the costs incurred by Sanofi, which should be much lower, Mannkind will be earning the lion's share, until all expenses are covered. This deal is front-loaded, not back-loaded. Very undervalued.
As so many of said, see the comments that go with the article. In them, Jeff Eiseman writes "I am walking back the claim that most of the investment in Afrezza will be recovered".
Author to his credit writes he is walking back some assumptions, trying to contact MNKD's Matt for more info/clarification. Find noteworthy that author wants Matt to explain the shaing of losses, but that's just me.
For all of you, some history about Sanofi corporate behavior bears discussing. Sanofi has a history of doing so-so upfront payments with so-so backend finances. If sales don't cut it, they often cut off the deal..
I am not sure about front or back loaded. But, I do agree with Jeff's article about the 2 billion in addition to the 35%. The 150 million is just a credit line. The older R&D costs will move out of there into COG. Mannkind will be made whole. This is why Matt said, " Our balance sheet will be dramatically different in the very near future." This blows up all the fud about the balance sheet. This company is WAY undervalued. I listened to the cc again in addition to when it came out the other morning. Right between the 28:23 to 30:00 and 33:00 to 36:00. Wow. This is going to move up.
I listened to those portions 3 times, and I don't hear that at all. A good discussion on ProBoards about it, and if tou read the comments, Jeff said he needs to check with Matt as he may have misunderstood! I really wish Jeff was right, but I don't think he is!!
as for the milestones?..1 bil.....that will build the 2nd factory like i thought would happen all along. another prediction of mine 3 years ago. and expand danbury. oppies dilution theories placed Al spending more money. see oppie , you are dumb as a post with all your twisted words and cow pie clown mouth lies, science guy. JMHO
Here's the thing: when it comes to the type of money we're talking about.... it is every man for himself. No one is going to hold your hand. You either decide now that you are investing for future "stupid huge money," or you let this one pass just like all the others.
I feel the same way about Mannkind that I felt about Ford circa November 2008. I thought to myself, Ford, they already restructured and didn't take the bailout. They know what they have and they know they're on the right track. I didn't act on it. 2 years later I decided I would never miss that type of opportunity again.
This opportunity is bigger. People don't have to inhale a Ford every time they have a meal to stay healthy/alive. All this company needs is 10% market penetration and it will be #$%$ successful." This doesn't take into consideration the royalties they will be taking from reformulated, proven drugs that will take advantage of technosphere's rapid onset through direct access to the blood stream: asprin, viagra..... etc. Granted those are 5-10 years down the road, but once this baby is up it is staying there.
I don't care if you believe shorts are taking this down or if it is the MMs. It doesn't matter. That is short term. What will this be worth 1, 2, 3.... years down the road if sales take off?
VIAGRA. Seriously I don't use or need it BUT some of you may be able to answer this question... how long does the big blue pill take to go into effect? 20-30 minutes? An inhalable Viagra might mean you're "ready Freddie" in 5 minutes. WOW! She just might sign up for that deal!
P.S. I'd suggest they add a breath-freshener to the powder... you single guys can kill two birds with one inhale... OTFLMAO! ;-)
here's my take on deal. profits from revenue are based on the cost of manufacturing dreamboat,cartridges. the cost of product and increases for inflation, are in writing. e.g. dreamboat is $500 and refills are $1000=$1500 cost. + 5% yearly increase. if sanofi sells $2500 then there's a $1000 profit to split 65/35. but what if mnkd lowers manufacturing costs by $500? sanofi's cost is still going to be based on $1500 not the reduced cost of $1000. that's what Al slipped out....or possibly referring to ..."new process" . mmmmm. ? JMHO
Let me provide you the simple conservative model based on very high cost assumptions - for every $1B in SNY sales MNKD will see $175M in net profit. The $175M front-end loan will provide the cushion until 2016 sales a realized.
The deal is front-loaded up to $175m. When I first saw it I was not a real fan but it is a better deal than I first thought. I would really have liked to have seen more of a dealer model but they tell me you can't do that with a biotech. I still say why not MNKD is not the typical biotech. However this upfront payment is why Matt said on the conference call its more of a 50-50 split. In valuing MNKD it really comes down to how much can SNY sell. For every $2B in gross sales MNKD should see $350M in profit. Assuming they can take 1/3 of the current rapid acting market in 5 years current pps should be $20. Its about that simple with a conservative estimate assuming total cost at 50% which is very high. If they can take 50% of the current market the pps should be $30. Can they take some of the Metformin $4B market? I would think so. Will there be other uses for Technosphere? You can bet the farm on it but what the revenue will be is a total unknown, The bottom line is the pps over the next several months will start moving into the $20 range once the big institutions run their models and get their buying plans approved. This will take a few weeks.