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MannKind Corp. Message Board

  • trade_pro101 trade_pro101 Aug 18, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    Afrezza $57 BILLION ANNUAL REVENUE... 382 Million Diabetics X 10% Capture X $1,500 Annual Afrezza Cost = $57 BILLION / YEAR

    The numbers don't lie. If you argue the numbers above… then YOU Failed Math Class. The only arguments I will accept is if you want to challenge whether Afrezza captures 10% of worldwide diabetics. I believe it will be done because Afrezza is targeting a new market of type 2 diabetics that should be on insulin but don't like needles. HUGE untapped market. Not to mention all existing insulin users converting over to Afrezza because it's the ONLY Ultra-Rapid Insulin that will be on the market in 2015. Even if it doesn’t sell $57 Billion and they only capture 1% of Worldwide Diabetics… it’s still huge money and a multi-billion market cap. Higher share price than today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • You can't argue your point as you so invited others to do because you made various points by hedging your point(s). Therefore it's "point"less.

    • Major dilemma with those #'s ...worldwide insulin sales are projected to be about $52b in next 20 yrs. within next 5 yrs probably about $30b. Highest projections for Afreeza to,date is $7b by 2019 by Griffith Securities. Which would be about what Lantus sales were last yr so $57b is a bit of a stretch :0)

    • And for glumproggapa, most diabetics in the 3rd world dont have enough money to put bread and rice on the table.
      Most diabetics have this deficiency because of their endulgence in over eating.
      Those that dont have enough bread and rice on their table dont get diabetic

      Sentiment: Hold

    • As otherottawaguy said, just for laugh
      There is 6 million diabetics in Saudi arabia
      They all will use Afrezza as candy
      6mil times $3,500
      You have to realise that 3rd world country will not care about label
      They care for comfort and convenience
      And as long as the product is approved by FDA, they will approve it
      And SYN will market the product before the end of the year

      Sentiment: Hold

    • TP_101:

      Had to giver a thumbs down because your numbers are not quite correct:

      Populations: T1/T2 (and growing)
      US/CAN: 3M/ 27M
      Euro: 4M / 36M
      ROW: 21M / 190M (but lets say only 20% can afford the treatment) = 4M / 36M
      Potential Market: 11M / 99M

      Need to remove those T1s on pumps and those with COPD:10%???
      Lowered Potential Market: 10M / 99M

      Need to remove T2 currently managing via methods other than Insulin: 75%??? (as you state treatment may need over haul when Afrezza is incorporated)
      Lower Potential Market 2: 10M / 25M

      Net Market: 35M
      Annual Cost (will be close to Pens): $2600
      So building the formula based on 1M patients (will allow us then to extrapolate for varying market share:

      1M (patients) * (2600 - (29%* (2600) [COGS])) * 35% [Royalty Rate] / 450M [Share Count w Warrants] * (1/(1.085 ^ 1.5)( [discount to end of 2015]
      = 1,000,000 * 1846 * 0.35 / 450,000,000 * 0.8848
      = 646M / 450M * 0.8848
      =1.27 EBITD

      Using a P/E of 18
      = $22.86 PPS per million served

      Using Current Danbury Max Production of 375
      = 22.86 / 1000k * 375K
      = 6.09 pps today.

      Looking to potential market shares in the future (no discounting:
      = 1M * 1846 * 0.35 / 450M) * 18 [PE]
      = 25.83 pps

      2.0M = 5.7% of Potential Market = $51.68 pps (max capacity at Danbury)
      3.5M = 10% of Potential Market = $90.45 pps
      8.7M = 25% of Potential Market = $224.84 pps

      Just for laughs
      17.5M = 50% of potential market = 452.27 pps

      These numbers do not include any other potential revenues from additional licensing or applications of Technosphere.

      Enjoy the ride,


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Math doesn't lie but people do. You must have failed common sense class in school. Are you aware that the vast majority of the 382M diabetics world wide live in third-world countries? These people live in squalor and don't have enough money to put bread or rice on the table, much less afford $1500 a year for medications. That's assuming they even know they are diabetics (The WHO's numbers include those who are not diagnosed), and live in an area with the infrastructure to distribute a new drug like Afrezza. Then add a large population of diabetics that do not need Afrezza; they are managing well on oral meds and diet control. Then add all those who would prefer the low cost of injectable insulin over this more expensive drug. Then add in those who will not take Afrezza because of the contraindications of COPD and asthma. Then add those who will not take the drug because of the fear of lung cancer. Then add in those who will not take the drug because their insurer will not cover as a tier one drug. I can go on and on but you get the point. Or do you? Maybe your just another pumper on this board. The reality is, Afrezza will not achieve sales number anywhere near you pumpers are predicting. Modest sales puts MNKD at $15-18 in 2-3 years. Anything in excess of this is ridiculous.

    • But you do lie, trade_pos. And u r blind too for ignoring the ATM machine that inflates the outstanding shares to stratosphere. Badholders lose.

    • EPS projection for 2015 has dropped 24% from -$0.25 to -$0.36 within last 30 days ... probably the reflection of your $57 billion revenue :)

    • right, but MNKD get 35% minus expenses. I believe Matt said %25 profit after expenses would be in line.

    • ignore!

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