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Gafisa S.A. Message Board

  • azseymour2002 azseymour2002 May 6, 2011 6:36 PM Flag

    Anybody else think it's time for a Brazil Bounce? (BRF)

    With commidities easing their ascent, shouldn't this should help alleviate the inflation concerns in Brazil. I believe this to be a good entry period into Brazil stocks they are down the most of the Bric's yet they have the most upside. I like (BRF) because it deals the most with consumer products. Credit has the capacity to expand rapidly in this nation and future events and the ramping up for these events will distribute alot of monies into their economy. In short....I go long.
    Anybody else share the same perspective, or antithoughts?
    TGIF - B

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    • "With commidities easing their ascent, shouldn't this should help alleviate the inflation concerns in Brazil."

      Gas prices are regulated in Brazil. I don't expect that steel prices will drop significantly for a quarter or two with all the pent-up demand. Labor shortages shouldn't be resolved anytime soon either.

      • 1 Reply to aco_brasil0192
      • Agreed. Wouldn't get too enthusiastic about Brazil just yet. I've made a bundle trading the Bovespa, but don't think we can't go significantly lower guys. China is only now just starting to raise in earnest and that means an azz whooping for Australia and Brazil at some point. Real trading at $1.6 and stronger with inflation raging. Think that doesn't take a bite?

        Be pragmatic. I still trade Brazilian stocks but on a short term basis with an eye toward the exits. I've shorted GFA and it was one of my better trades recently. Don't overlook short opp on TSU. Brazil telecoms are headed for a mini-crash.

        Interestingly, GS cut ratings on most South American miners but did maintain that iron ore would still be priced higher hence the strength in Vale. I love seeing that pig fatten up.

    • Read the quarterly report and associated GFA related media. (pay particular attention to their comments on upcoming quarters toward the end of the year).

      GFA will be closer to $20 than $12 by year end.

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