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Gafisa S.A. Message Board

  • the_entitled the_entitled Aug 30, 2012 1:23 PM Flag

    Target Rate 7.5% Maximum Parsimony

    I thing that would be it. Six more months of low rates to help GFA and then rate hikes to crunch second tier builders.

    M&A consolidation is already happening in Br so last men standing takes all during World Cup and Olympics.

    btw. Shorts up from 10.3M to 10.8M...they came for more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • "Congrats in your trade. Let me know when you're flipping short to join the ride"

      Thanks but this is probably more of an investment than a trade. Though ELP has fallen sharply, the company is in no way comparable to GFA. It is a highly reliable cash flow machine with solid financial underpinnings. I don't expect it to post a 5 year low like GFA did. Drastically oversold buying opportunities on ELP are few and far between...

      The rate cut announcement will have an impact, but they have experienced rate cuts in the past. They also already have the lowest rates of any utility provider in the country, so the impact of the announcement will be even more muted. This might be more of a reaction to news today that the company will have to pay for some fried consumer electronics that were impacted by a recent electrical surge.

      I bought back half of my GFA position at 4.19, but don't like the volume pattern today. I will double down at some point tomorrow if it gets wacked following (or leading up to) whatever Ben B has to say tomorrow. The stock clearly needs to consolidate.

    • Typo thing = think.

      I know I'm talking to myself here, but If

      Romney wins= Ben leaves = Rate hikes = Worldwide Homebuilders Consolidation. GFA gets acquired.

      Obama wins = Ben Stays = Low Rates = Worldwide Housing Bubble Expands. GFA trades at $10.

      The risk is for the shorts, either way.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to the_entitled
      • This MB format sucks.

        In any case, I made a couple of new acquisitions today. Balance sheet and cash flow on both companies are solid

        ELP - IMO the best stock in Brazil in many regards - hit a post 2010 low following an earnings miss. They have a big new dam coming online this month, which should help reduce costs (I can explain more later if anyone is interested). Technical high volume bounce on long-term support line happened today.

        GMCR has been beaten possibly worse than GFA in 2012. This week's decline was attributable to a Mr Coffee recall of single cup machines. Also concern about patent expiration. Nice value play overall.

        GFA technicals looking solid. I like how it continues to push the upper BB, how the 50dma is creeping up, and we remain above the 10 and 20dma. A breach and hold of the 200dma would be really promising.

        Lets keep our fingers crossed that the markets continue to hold their ground in September.

        Good weekend to all...

1.86-0.02(-1.06%)Oct 21 4:02 PMEDT