From what you are saying if oil prices don't go up in the next 3 or 4 years just about every oil company in the world will be BK except the mideast and if one live in a northern climate they will freeze to death because all the oil co.'s are bk...Somehow i think it won't come to that
I am not sure if you are arguing that oil prices will go up or not?
I did not say I think the company would be bankrupt. I just said at current commodity prices (and no hedges), there will not be much excess cashflow to pay distributions. That is basic math given their cost structure and debt structure. Maybe they can change the cost structure dramatically, but I am not sure how much.
I believe I said commodity prices will pick up when the world economies recover. I don't know if that is next month or 2 years from now. I suspect we will start seeing growth by the end of next year.
My point is that if the price of oil gets too cheap to where oil has stopped being pumped alarm bells will be going off in Washington...Bogle from Vangard mentioned something to that effect today....The gov't will not want to go to 200 dollar oil and once wells go down it takes time to get back to normal...very little new well are being drilled now...Plus the mid east could blow up at anytime...