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Vantage Drilling Company Message Board

  • happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Mar 3, 2013 4:39 PM Flag

    Strategy ( From the 2012 Annual Report

    1) Capitalize on customer demand for modern, high specification units - Done
    2) Focus on International Markets - Done
    3) Increase our deepwater exposure - Done
    4) Expand key industry relationships - Work in progress
    5) Use contracted cash flow to reduce leverage - Next
    6) identify and persue acquiisition opportunities - Later

    In another year or so all of our rigs will be working at full capacity, and the remaining debt will have been refinanced. By then we will have a better idea of the earnings power of the fleet, and Braggs ability to pay down the massive debt. At that point the longs will need to re-evaluate their holdings to see if the stock is still worth owning and the shorts will be long gone. Good luck to all at whichever side of the bet that you chose to make.

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    • Strategy update and Tung news tomorrow. Assuming all is well with Titanium.

    • 1.55 today, HH your wrong, and Braggs strategy cleary is as well unfortunatley.

    • At 1.60 you can see the value destruction is real even after the fleet has grown and the refi is imminent. I think Bragg would even admit Titanium destroyed the company which is why he is litigating againt SU. Bottom line, he pulled the trigger.

      You have to admit, you thought you would be well over 2 now. Were 3 mos from the Tung and this guy doesnt even have solid contracts done yet in the best udw market ever. Operators know vtg is hurting here and they dont want to get locked in if Titanium never ramps up. Who knows whats going on with the well in the GOM. The govt will be all over that before they allow drilling again.

    • Also, execrising the Palladium option is not paying down debt and he spent 30mm in cash prematurely. I am sure he plans to exercise more. This company is set up to pay bragg his salary and free options, not to make you and me money.

    • HH,

      Im not sure what your trying to say here. All was good until Titanium. That set us back 300-400mm, more then Bragg could ever pay down in debt in the short term. We would be 2.50-3.00 if not for Titanium but that blew the cap structure out. Game over. Cant go back now. All he had to do was refi and drop Tung. The early refi was extremely costly, overpaying for Titanium, late start and now operational problems. 1.62. The market doesnt lie, these are just the facts. This company once had an upside of 8, now 3. Bragg knows it, thats why he needs more free options to pay his people. The stock isnt making any money for anybody including his middle managers. Believe me, im not a short but just keeping it real here.....sad to say.

      If you follow the cash flow statement the May 1 debt payment will be very tight to make. My guess is between is late spring you will see the emergency line of credit tapped. Any delays with Tung we will be seeking or begging for a buyout at 1.40. Things are tight here if they cant get the Titanium up soon. The Tung cash on the balance sheet is not working capital.

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