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Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. Message Board

  • neuronbrain neuronbrain Jul 21, 2000 12:32 AM Flag

    BR Earnings Reflection!

    It almost always is a significant warning signal
    when earnings season is upon us and the trading
    pattern of your stock inexplicably changes. You can
    always tell that something is different. If what you
    think should be happening is not being confirmed in the
    price of the stock, you get a bad feeling in your gut.
    But you say to yourself, lets wait for earnings, all
    will be better then. But almost always, it is earnings
    that will not meet consensus estimates that is the
    problem. The problem is the insiders already know and are
    dumping the stock in advance of the report because they
    "know" there will be disappointment. We all just
    experienced this with BR. It all started at $45.00, look at
    the chart.

    It does appear to me that Bobby
    Shackouls and his management team are taking an
    ultraconservative approach to running the company to the point that
    they are willing to let gas and oil production
    languish rather than spend money to try and boost it.
    Which means that they are probably trying to put
    together a string of improving quarterly numbers as a
    prelude to selling the company. The writing appears to be
    firmly on the wall. I hope I am correct and that it
    happens sooner rather than later for the sake of all us
    longs. On the other hand, Bobby Shackouls might just be
    inept at running BR in this day and age and it is time
    for a BOD press release to the effect "The BOD of BR
    met with Bobby Shackouls and discussed the situation
    at the company and unanimously decided it was time
    for a change." "Bobby has left the company to spend
    more time with his family and enjoy his ranch." "He
    will be replaced by.........."

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    • first i thought the insider sales were pretty
      tame back when the stock was 41 and 44 so i did not
      have problems with that. it was public
      anyway.

      i do have a PROBLEM with the reported average price
      for the natural gas for the quarter. the earnings
      press release states the average price for the 2Q00 ng
      was $2.44. ok let's do some simple math based on br's
      own public documents and the price open market ng in
      2Q00. br's annual report states exactly the amount of
      ng hedged in 2000 at a price of $2.43. we know from
      many statements from company people that about 900 mcf
      per day of br's ng production was hedged, which is a
      little less than 50% (i think the daily production rate
      was 1,900 mcf (someone correct me if wrong) of the
      daily production on ng. to sort of support this a
      presentation on br's website to banc of america analysts
      meeting on june 22, 2000, states that the hedge number is
      886 mcf at $2.53/mcf (i think that is right, but i am
      doing this from memory).

      we know the price
      during 2Q00 was between $3 and $4+, so how could half
      the ng production plus the hedged ng production
      average price be only $2.44 average? i was very surprised
      no analyst asked about the average price of ng. if
      we are being told the true story on hedges, then
      something seems wrong with the $2.44 ng price. can anybody
      figure this out or does anyone already know the
      answer?

      also the conf. call was weak. i cannot believe that we
      just heard about a 7% production curtailment during
      2Q00 due to unscheduled downtime (read problems). hey
      management, the reason so many analysts asked you on the
      conf. call about "anymore surprises" is due to the
      surprises you dumped out today. br management must learn to
      be more transparent during the quarter. the next to
      last statement and question was good. the analyst told
      them what was not going right and asked whether bobby
      was planning to sell the company. i hope the company
      is in play. last year i heard that texaco was
      interested. br has a lot of ng that they don't seem to be
      able to get out at today's prices.

 
BR
68.35+0.27(+0.40%)Aug 23 4:02 PMEDT