Rate Futures anticipate a 62% increase in Bulk Shipping rates by the end of the year
"Forward freight agreements, traded by brokers and used to bet on future costs, anticipate a rebound, with fourth-quarter rates being traded at $14,325, or 62 percent more than now, Clarkson data show."
Note also that total cargoes are also expected to be up over 20% since 2008...
End2... just for chuckles I ran a revenue projection using the Q4 FFAs and compared it to the current rates to see what affect the rate change would have GNKs revenue.
If you assume that each ship is earning the current rate of its class (which, of course, it is not).
And if you assume that each ship will be able to earn the Q4 FFA of its class (which, of course, it will not)
And if you assume that each ship will earn its class rate for an entire 30 day month...
Then GNK would realize
1.392m addl revenue from the 9 Capes
148.8k less revenue from the 8 Panas
962.4k less revenue from the 17 Supras
929.1k less revenue from the 19 Handys
For a net DECREASE in revenue of 647.3k
Again... see assumptions above.
But the future rate environment does NOT favor GNK's ability to improve its financial situation. Capes will do better, but declines in everything else overwhelm the benefit provided by improving Cape rates.