I do not disagree with a word of this post. In fact, I believe you conveyed the timeframe for GNK's survival quite perfectly if the BDI has no improvement for the next 3 years. The quarterly earnings report at the end of October is going to be very interesting because there simply isn't enough time remaining in the quarter for GNK to improve its revenues meaningfully with the BDI rates being so low for so long during this quarter. I myself would be very surprised if GNK manages to lose less than $10 million off the cash reserves of the roughly $150 million on its balance sheet for the quarter despite not even being required to pay any interest expenses on all its debt. It should be ugly and might be significantly worse than $10 million though I seriously doubt it will amount to more than $15 million.
The question is, when would all that matter to the stock price? Or, perhaps, will it ever matter? These are fair questions because the share price has elevated dramatically off the low set on the eve of the last earnings report. For me, it comes down to one vital question followed by another vital question. Firstly, will prices for shipping rates improve enough any time soon for it to matter enough for the GNK bottom line in terms of its survival and return to profitability? If not, secondly, then when is this trading in GNK shares that amounts to nothing more than hopeful and baseless speculation (assuming the bearish thesis) going to end as some kind of game of musical chairs once the tune of wishful thinking being played finally stops? Because it comes down to both questions ultimately if a bullish thesis has no merit.