The US will produce a bumper record amount of corn. They are selling it world wide. News just out. Then the IRON and coal story. It is projected that exports will continue into 2013 with an increase of 6% and 2014 with an increase of 8%. According to Genco Shipping and Trading , Chinese coking coal imports will increase by 40% in 2013 due to a drop in spot coking coal prices, and India thermal coal imports will rise 16% in 2013 to 142 million tons (over 800 capesize ships or about 3 per day).
"India thermal coal imports will rise 16% in 2013 to 142 million tons (over 800 capesize ships or about 3 per day)."
Couple things to think about. First, coal is carried mostly on Supras and Panas, especially to India. Their ports are too shallow for the most part. Second, you are not thinking about fleet growth offsetting that demand growth still. There will be a lot of ships pushed into 2014 and that orderbook is well over 700 drybulkers already. The scrapping of vessels is way down as well. That helped a ton last year. There is more pain to come and the rebound isn't going to be a sharp as many think. Today, the Cape rates pulled back. There is always a problem with importing tens of millions of tons of ore in a short period. It ends and they don't order much at all for a while. Some suggest China is over-producing steel at this time and should throttle back.