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iStar Financial Inc. Message Board

  • wareham2620 wareham2620 Dec 18, 2008 3:00 PM Flag

    The street 12/14/08

    We rate ISTAR FINANCIAL INC (SFI) a SELL. This is driven by a number of negative factors, which we believe
    should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve
    positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company's weaknesses can be seen in
    multiple areas, such as its feeble growth in its earnings per share, deteriorating net income, generally weak
    debt management, disappointing return on equity and weak operating cash flow.
    ISTAR FINANCIAL INC has exprienced a steep decline in earnings per share in the most recent quarter in
    comparison to its performance from the same quarter a year ago. Earnings per share have declined over the
    last two years. We anticipate that this should continue in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, ISTAR
    FINANCIAL INC reported lower earnings of $1.27 versus $2.38 in the prior year. For the next year, the market is
    expecting a contraction of 378.7% in earnings (-$3.54 versus $1.27).
    The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter one year ago, has significantly
    underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500 and the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
    industry. The net income has significantly decreased by 385.6% when compared to the same quarter one year
    ago, falling from $105.64 million to -$301.76 million.
    The debt-to-equity ratio is very high at 5.32 and currently higher than the industry average, implying that there
    is very poor management of debt levels within the company.
    Return on equity has greatly decreased when compared to its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This
    is a signal of major weakness within the corporation. Compared to other companies in the Real Estate
    Investment Trusts (REITs) industry and the overall market, ISTAR FINANCIAL INC's return on equity
    significantly trails that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
    Net operating cash flow has decreased to $133.32 million or 21.51% when compared to the same quarter last
    year. In addition, when comparing the cash generation rate to the industry average, the firm's growth is
    significantly lower.

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    • Sure do agree with that.

      Use to play the SPY's and QQQQ's and XLF and XHB solely for quite some time. Did well for a bit, along with China stocks for magnesium.

      Finally, got my head served to me on a silver platter too many times due to shorts on the ETF's. Did well with the China plays and then got stopped out of them

      Now after the fed announcement, I personally feel the reits will struggle, but survive. Of Course now is the time to invest while so many are pushing sell, sell, sell. Trying to setup my portfolio for divys to live on starting sometime late in 2010 and 2011. SO I am just accuming here, not trading anymore.

      Actually, according to Robert McHugh, Ph.D., Peter Elliades, and Tom Prindivale, which are all great tech chart analysts, we should expect a good run for a few months, with minor pullbacks. Then sometime next year, not specific yet, but they will be, expect a massive correction to the downside. All are predicting this, along with a few other analysts I follow.

      So I may sell sometime like June of next year, only to load up again. I have many divy plays right now. They have all been so slaughtered(before I bought any of them), that even when the market goes down a ton, they hold up fairly well and even go up when the market falls, like today with SFI. I bought 2k more today. IMO, there is something amiss and someone very big is accuming SFI here. Could be the CO, but we will see very shortly.

      Joyful day to all

      Snowy - been snowing all day. Have many feet of snow outside. Sure is beautiful, but now I may have to start shoveling :-}

    • i like vanguard ETFs cuz of their low fee. it's a great way to diversify when i don't have enough time to do research on individual stocks. Even seasoned investors like Ferdie forget the basic lesson of diversification and lose their shirt...i got to keep reminding myself that everyday too.

    • Would tend to agree. But, the set-asides for NPLs has been very aggressive and, I hope, proactive. Over $800mm coverage for these assets would affect any reit's income statement, particularly if it is done in 2 or 3 quarters.

      That being said, survivability is the key metric for SFI. Regardless of 09 returns, focus must be on that, and I as an investor am willing to wait it out for the upside. :O}

    • So we should all panic and sell because some outside rating agency, who is so trust worthy and is always correct and above board, says sell it.

      I see you post these regularly. I feel sorry for you if you trade with this garbage and I mean garbage. These agencys are just like the ponzi scheme run by Madoff. Way too much power for one institution.

      Also, it is old news. Hmmmm aren't scared are you? Makes me smile :-)

      Good bye


      • 1 Reply to snowy.drift
      • snowy.drift,
        Thanks for the laugh.First of all ,I'm holding and reinvesting my dividends .All the way to the bottom if that is where they go.Unless they stop their dividends that is.But I hope most of them come back up in the long run.
        I'm sure you're much smarter than I.But if I were you ,I would diversify my holdings .You know, like don't put all of you money in one sector.
        Well ,best of luck to you.Smile and have a good day anyway.