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  • hschlauch hschlauch Jul 10, 2014 11:09 PM Flag

    Valuation Following Trial Data Release

    So ACT is addressing a market in excess of 10 million people - for the U.S. alone - for dry AMD, and we currently sit at a market cap under 250 mil. How would this company be valued at the onset of a phase 2 trial following the release of possible unprecedented results for a market this huge? Moreover, what if they receive breakthrough designation and never need to complete a phase 3 trial? I have been trying to find similar examples, but to no avail. This appears to be a very unique situation.

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    • How many indications have a potential market anywhere near this big? Obviously nothing is approved yet by the FDA, but what we may have, at least based on anecdotal evidence, is a biologic that could potentially receive an early approval if the stars align right. So how is something of this magnitude - not considering anything else in their development pipeline - going to be valued if anecdotal evidence is supported by peer reviewed data?

      A conservative 10 percent penetration with a cost of $5,000 per eye would bring in revenues over $10B, just for the US. We can manipulate the numbers as much as we want and still arrive at the same conclusion, that there is tremendous upside even for the ballooning of outstanding shares.

    • following the release of possible unprecedented results

      The key words, "possible unprecedented results . . ." While I hope the results are unprecedented many people on this board, and elsewhere, have nearly turned this into a forgone conclusion which is dangerous and reckless thinking. Until we get the results published we really don't know how "unprecedented" the results really are. I hope we find out soon! Best of luck!