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The9 Limited Message Board

  • geekcomputing geekcomputing Aug 15, 2007 6:52 PM Flag

    Long term assessment of ncty

    A lot of us are thinking .. wtf, why is ncty going down so much?

    My theory is the delaying shipping the expansion pack for world of warcraft is the culpret , combined w/ the lawsuit rumor (which turns out to be against blizzard) and just a general lack of good information by the company to U.S. investors. Another problem is getting the games out the door and into the market. NCTY has licenses for some of the hottest games ever (Huxley, guild wars). They can acquire the rights to games but seem to be pretty slow at actually getting them out.

    On the positive side the line up of games is incredible.

    Then factor in EA's history of acquiring or increasing positions in companies (ubi is an example) and you have some real potential.

    also the EA partnership should lead to ncty getting a lot of hot ea games in the future.

    Earnings should really shed some light onto whats going on in the company and how revenues are.

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    • I think all of you should focus more on the big picture, the general market has fell sharply and QQQQ almost broke its 200 MA today. Sector wise, SNDA, NTES and PWRD are all falling big. NCTY might be a fundamentally sounding stock but recently it's just caught up into a weak market and weak sector. For macro investors, we should always buy a strong stock in a strong sector in a strong market. So i will hold tight on my cash for now until the market/sector recovers.

    • you might also take solace in the fact that everything china-related that trades here in the states is taking a beating:

      hope that brings comfort to some, unless you have money in some other china plays.. then you're definitely not having the best of days. hang in there people! it's hard to see how the credit meltdown here affects chinese stocks in the non-financial sector. the fundamentals of the country, and of the companies themselves, remain great, so take some of these quotes off your screen for a couple of weeks and take a breather. things will be back to normal soon, or that's the plan at least.

    • i agree with you long-term view, geek. i think what may be going on (just a theory) is that some hedge funds that are getting hit by this credit meltdown are being forced to liquidate some of their holdings. my guess is that they look for the riskiest assets in their portfolios (not necessarily this stock, but chinese and emerging market ADRs in general) and unload those. the volume isn't quite as large considering we're making 10%+ moves for the past two days, but it could be a sign that its just these hedge funds that are unloading, while the rest of us (who believe in the company's fundamentals and future growth) are holding through the pain.

      that being said, i wish i had taken a little off the table in the low 50s, but i think this gives people a tremendous buying opportunity. the forward PE and the PEG are very low at the moment, and i think those interested in buying a piece of this great company have the perfect opportunity to do so now. seems like at these prices, even if they slightly miss earnings the stock won't get hit too hard (given that they give an update on burning crusade and on how SUN has done in terms of providing revenue).

      all in all, this is a pretty rough hit to take, but if you have a long-term horizon (which I have since my initial investment), you'll sit through the pain and look back on this in a year wondering what people were thinking.

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