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CVD Equipment Corporation Message Board

  • dwoods4q dwoods4q May 17, 2012 3:19 PM Flag

    $10 VS $15

    In the next 3-4 weeks opinions on which figure [ closing stock price ] do we get to first.....with possible reason/catalyst

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    • If ten i will quadruple my holdings. Seekingaplha writes a negative article and then publicly states it is going to short the stock. That is pretty much a pump and dump (inversely).

      • 1 Reply to shakagenghis
      • A lot of shorts here, which makes trading to outfox the hounds a must. CVV was a buy-n-hold up until about Mid-Aug, but all such bets were off when the CEO and others cashed in. They totally earned that payday on superb EPS growth, but the shorts were drawn in by that, and have been doubling down over and again ever since, presumably on the notion that the new facilities will shake earnings (and more importantly, investor confidence) enough for the short cohort to get cover.

        If the shorts are wrong (i.e. "price X shrCt" exceeds 67% of their margin cash before they get cover), we'll see a short squeeze. But I think the chart will make a cup and handle first, due to the long/short squabble. That CFO-putting-10K-shrs-out-there thing highlowsel found is worth considering as a caution against chasing - if we go to $20 in a hurry, you can bet we'll spike back down shortly after.

        Big next Q profits might be wishful thinking - if they top a dime, I'll be giddy, since the new facilities should allow for quite a bit of growth. They are in a rapidly changing market, but have shown no small skill navigating it while a nasty recession was going on.

        A "Custer's Last Short" bear raid gets more likely on low Q2 EPS; quality no-brainer buys happen when shorty is painting the tape to spook the fickle. But the estimates here have been conservative by 2c or 17c should send the price flying if we're still pharting about in the $11-13 zone at release.

    • The Nano/Graphene conference could be a huge catalyst here in June.

      Very few know about Graphene. Once more investors learn about this wave of the future, CVV should see a big move. Not many public companies have the word Graphene tied to them, like CVV.

    • my guess is $10.

      most here know i've been here for a few years and am luck to have a cost basis in the 3-5 range. I traded a few shares in the 11-14 range but held to my core position. Absolutely, CVV is in a great position long term. And agree with folks here that you just don't move into a facility that is 100% larger without some confidence of near term future orders or at the very least positioning your self to take advantage of larger orders or markets that customers thought you could not handle in a smaller facility. As publicly mentioned, their transition will be complete in Q3, my guess in late Q3.

      All that being said, my gut tells me that the Q2 and possibly Q3 will be tough comparables to prior year. Last year, orders and sales were running at record levels. Not this year for possibly building issues. As short interest and lack of record orders will weigh on short term stock price, the price will drift down over the next 2 months to the high 9s or 10 range. This presents a buying opp for me and probably others. Because most of us here have supreme confidence that orders will come back. All is need is a couple PRs similar to last jan for this thing to come back to high teens.

      The multi million dollar order was great but will be small potatoes looking back. Good luck.

    • I like basic and it seems to me that this company has some pretty unique technology. I think good things are to come here long term.

    • I agree with all sentiments. But my view is that over the shorter to intermediate term markets are not always rational. The last couple of sessions should be proof of that. BUT, if you're managing your capital properly, and feel the longer term view is important (for this equity), then bid moves south into this territory and (in the event) lower signify prime areas to buy....judiciously...

      And being judicious about it, given the thinly held/traded and small cap nature of this stock is the only way to pursue it.

      Just some thoughts.

      Let's see how it plays out tomorrow.

      American Net'Zen

    • Personally, I put in a buy order at $11 and I hope it goes there. Long term, this stock is solid. Their Q1 results were very good. They still have a backlog and Graphene is a miracle material. I don't see any reason to dump this stock at this point. They just purchased a huge facility. It's time to buy while it's low IMHO. It's a gift to those who don't mind waiting a bit.

    • I hate to be so basic, but, smart people don't move to bigger facilities if they don't have a bright outlook. Just given the segment they are in, I think it can be assumed they are pretty bright.

    • Given the sentiments expressed by the Seeking Alpha have an truth to them then I'd say you'll see the $10 area before you see $15. Another poster called it when he/she said it looked like $14 was about "it for now." Given the Seeking Alpha type information there's little sense that CVV will move upward over the intermediate term. I rate the possibility of doing a test of the 52-week low area at greater than 50/50; especially given overall market conditions, FUD over Europe, etc..

      Just some thoughts in light of recent events.

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