CNBC, the market drop today, and how it happened. SEC where are you?
GDP was not so bad...
Should have been an up day.
But lets talk about what happened.
Market started up on news, but then all sorts of leaks came out of the Obama white house from the financial reporters who told the smart money the bail out might be in trouble. That pushed it down, but then it started to recover. THEN GASPARINO DROPS THE BOMB ON CNBC in the afternoon when the informed MONEY IS OUT of their long positions AND SHORTING.
SEC investigations should start with investigating the financial reporting system.
And CNBC will do as much as they can to encourage in and out trading and make their clients rich.
From your post: "GDP was not so bad..." ------------------------------------------------------------- Wow, how can you possibly say that? The first two quarters of 2008 were positive. 1st qtr +0.9%, second qtr +2.8%m 3rd qtr -0.5%. This means that not only did we lose 3.5% since 4th qtr 2007, we also lost 7.2% from the peak. That's right, 4th qtr 2008 GDP is down 7.2% from the recent peak of 2nd qtr 2008.
But, because somebody tried to get ahead of the curve and published a "prediction" that 4th qtr would be down 4-5%, being down only 3.5% doesn't look so bad, at least to some.
We really need to watch getting tricked by folks comparing economic data to "predictions". By manipulating their predictions, they can make it appear that the effect is opposite to reality. This instills "false confidence". They are looking to improve confidence any way they can. They are looking for a desired effect. They want people to take on even more debt and spend their money frivilously. That is how "confident" people act.
Here's two things for all of us to use.
1. When economic numbers come out, compare them to the numbers a year ago, a quarter ago, and from the peak. Ignore comparisons to predictions or early estimates.
2. Whenever you hear the government talk about "confidence" realize that they are trying to trick us into borrowing money and spending it frivilously.
We have only officially been in a recession for 2 days. "Most experts agree that it is only an "official economic recession" when GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters or more". From: http://recession.org/definition
Historically, the best perspective of gaging economic activity, as GDP, is to compare it to the peak. That peak was attained 2nd qtr 2008. I expect to see GDP number of 75% or lower than that number before this is finished. We are already over 1/4th of the way there in just 2 quarters. This is "extremely" abrupt.
It's all relative. Market is too hyperactive and it tends to overreact to everything. One could say the GDP is good because the wrapper number was better than the forecast, and one could say it was bad because the number disguises hidden problems (inventory).
DUMBA$$$ WRONG! The GDP was a fraud, because it showed a POSITIVE for INVENTORY BUILD! Again, I call for an investigation of the BLS, especially the COMMISSIONER BUSH APPOINTED, WITHOUT HEARINGS IN 2007. That inventory build will come out, showing a bigger drop next quarter, with this BEING REVISED DOWN TO 6+%. Anyone smart on this board and institutional money managers know this.