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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Message Board

  • hk10502003 hk10502003 Aug 15, 2008 6:42 PM Flag

    Is Monday time to buy? Hedging Question

    Bought more yesterday, may be was early.

    ADM should do well this quarter with grain prices coming down.
    Why some analysts are saying that falling prices are not good for ADM? Is it that ADM would have hedged at higher prices? Any opinions?


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    • Grain and Corn price drop is good for ADM.
      But oil price drop is bad for ADM.
      They kind of canceled out.

      I think current ADM price is really a bargin.
      Even the oil drop a little more if Congress pass the off shore drilling bill, I still think current ADM value is a good deal.

      I am not surprised that Lehman Brothers will upgrade ADM within next 6 months, this is why ADM is put at the Underweight at the beginning. So Lehman Brothers can play a making profit game.

      • 1 Reply to tamaehou
      • Why oil price drop is bad for ADM?

        ADM was increasing book value by about $1.2 Billion to $1.4 Billion to now more than $2.2 Billion for last three years. With short term trend, they may even do better for coming quarter and some analysts will pick that up, hopefully soon.

        Longer it takes, investors will probably have a good buy on their hands, IMHO.

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