I expected adm to recover more today. I must admit i can not figure out what happens to adm if the dollar comes down. The track record is very good, lots of "moving parts" to adm. Maybe adm takes a run at a take over of bg.
Think back about the premise that was causing fertilizers, ag stocks to rise in such a rapid pace. Emerging economies & China growing at a breakneck pace and populations would be evolving financially to be able to eat better foods. Now that the world economies are in turmoil, US is only down 30% how bout some of these other nations down up to 89%, that may cause some in other countries to continue living the way that had for years and hold off on the growth. Just saying
If earnings and yield are at forecast or above, this stock will fly again. Right now this is dead money until earnings. I would think that if they were going to miss they would warn in a similar way as Bunge. So far no warning. However the market is reacting to the whole sector.
Having taken some profits at $28.20 I have just reinvetsed @ $24.60. I quite like the way the markets are behaving right now - over reacting to any bad news but not being able to dampen the fundametal value on a good day.
Even if ADM profits take a temporray knock they are not going bust and offer a yield that looks as safe as anything else on offer - with intrest rates so low ADM has some real attraction as an income stock - and this is what will cause it to bounce if it drifts too low.
Absolutely. This is all about Bunge giving reduced earnings guidance. if ADM meets expectation this will jump right back the other way toward 30. I think the earning outlook is still plenty good to support $30 stock price in short term.