If only it were so simple. Adm is a complex and diversified company. From what i gather they buy crop commodities at a certain time and lock in some sort of price, so they seem to have some sort of hedge strategy. Most of the time i think adm makes its commodity calls right and also marks up its value added products. Of course sometimes they can get it wrong. Bottom line the variations in crop success around the world is infact one of the drivers for adm business. It takes the crops from where they are abundant and for sale to where the crops are not so good. Of course there are all the value added processes adm does. ethanol is only one of its business segments. I do think the ethanol business is one of the ways adm is making business partners in places like Brazil. Long term fundamentals look good for adm in general.