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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Message Board

  • manylumen manylumen Apr 24, 2010 1:14 PM Flag

    Target price $30

    Yahoo target consensus low target is $33. Think adm is undervalued in the market. I also like viterra at its price today. What do you guys think of adm vs bg, vs I think agu and pot have more of a dip to come yet, but adm and and even bg might start to out perform. all comments welcome.

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    • Too bad we can buy random banks real estate retail and blow away ADM performance... It's like it's a wildcard in institutions back pocket for when hyperinflation starts and not much else... It's all about the DBA imho... DBA over $30 and ADM is popping... btw TITN is a good related play here imo

      • 1 Reply to ramaji2
      • "It's all about the DBA"

        Very few things are ever about DBA. It's just a bad investment to compare it to other ag companies.

        DBA will suffer almost every year from contango. 5-7% (Sugar bailed them out last year, but that won't happen every year.) So it'll be hard pressed to ever rise and hold gains. If it wasn't for inflation, I would say DBA would NEVER hit 30 again. As in ever.

        And unless that said inflation occurs over a very short term period of high (hyper) inflation in the ag commodities, DBA will underperform year over year.

        Avoid it just like you should avoid UNG and USO. All destined for zero one day.

    • ADM has a few things going for it.

      1. It has been channeling between $28 and $33 now for a while. Safe bet to buy at the bottom of the channel.

      2. Forward Price earning Ratio extremely low makes it a value play.

      3. Good dividend and it has risen over the years.

      4. Price of corn going lower due to bumper crop. Helps ADM with it's ethanol profits (ethanol has been a major reason for ADM declining from the $40 range).

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