MLV & Co. have initiated coverage on IMUC with a buy rating and price target of $4.50!!!
ImmunoCellular Therapeutics, Ltd.
Initiating Coverage as Phase II Glioma Trial Nears Complete Enrollment
We are initiating coverage on ImmunoCellular Therapeutics, Ltd. with a BUY recommendation and a $4.50 one-year price target, based on promising results from a Phase I trial of company's lead clinical candidate, ICT-107, an autologous therapeutic vaccine for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme (glioma). The results justified commencement of a larger, confirmatory, randomized, double-blind Phase IIb trial in January 2011. Full enrollment of about 200 patients is expected this quarter.
• Unmet Need. Glioma is an aggressive cancer of the brain marked by high mortality and morbidity. The current standard of care (SOC) following initial diagnosis is tumor resection, radiation, and chemotherapy with Temodar® (temozolomide). However, median overall survival (OS) with SOC is only 12.5-14.6 months, and the two-year survival rate is 26.5%. Alternatively, treatment with Gliadel® (polifeprosan 20 with carumstine) adds an additional 2.2 months. These low survival rates highlight the critical unmet clinical need for better therapies in treating glioma.
• Clinical Data and Trials. ImmunoCellular treated 16 patients with ICT-107 in a Phase I trial with results suggesting that the vaccine lends a substantial survival benefit to patients. While a small trial, the median OS was 38.4 months for patients vaccinated with ICT-107. Notably, six patients remain disease-free three years after treatment, giving the vaccine a three-year survival rate of 55%, compared to a historical control rate of 16%. A randomized, double- blind, placebo-controlled trial of ICT-107 that is expected to enroll about 200 patients is underway.
• Enhanced Immunotherapy. In our view, the apparent enhanced efficacy of ICT-107 is due to ImmunoCellular's proprietary autologous dendritic cell (DC) vaccine platform that uses patient-derived peripheral blood mononuclear cells transformed in culture into mature DCs, the body's most potent antigen presenting cells. These DCs are then armed with tumor-specific antigens (TSAs), which can efficiently elicit a native T cell immune response when given back to the patient. The activated T cells are now able to kill TSA-expressing glioma cells. ICT-107 arms DCs with six distinct antigens, thus enhancing both the efficiency and breadth of the immune response against residual cancer cells.
• Next Generation of Personalized Vaccines. We think ImmunoCellular's platform has broad applicability, with the potential for the development of similar DC vaccines for multiple indications. To this end, ImmunoCellular intends to file INDs for two new DC vaccines for the treatment of ovarian cancer and recurrent glioma this year. In our opinion, by providing a patient's immune system antigens known to target residual cancer cells, the vaccines make an excellent adjunct therapy to SOC.
$4.50 by end of year ok but i will be disappointed. now keep in mind i am a real imuc bull i see $18 many here do not realize the value of IMUC patents especially those that are still in the pipeline. GLTA lets face it their patents allows them to be an add on to all cancer treatments allows all of the big boys to add them on to a study at no cost to imuc. GLTA
$15 or 50 cents may be true, but if you think it's 60/40 in favor of $15, then it's worth the risk. We all know that investing in biotech is risky, but I also agree with others on this board that the potential for IMUC is something I'm willing to take a risk on. If the phase II results come anywhere close to replicating the phase I success, this company will be worth a whole lot more than $100 million. Buying in at these levels is like buying a lottery ticket where the odds are tilted in your favor - this of course in my speculative opinion. Look around the biotech space and you'll find all kinds of names that have a larger market cap but nowhere near the potential. In a few years, who's to say IMUC couldn't be the next SGEN, HGSI or DNDN (minus the fall!)?
The work they and GALE are doing in vaccine therapy is phenomenal, im not good at picking price points, but I can say these companies have a lot more real world promise than companies valued at 2-3x as much.