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Maxcom Telecomunicaciones SAB d Message Board

  • botonist86 botonist86 Jun 1, 2003 7:55 PM Flag

    The point


    The point is that MXT can probably make money if things just stay the same, but it probably won't be a lot of money.

    We need the short trend in declining delinquencies to get stronger in order to make a bunch of money for MXT and us.

    Yes, I am definitely long, but I am willing to wait for MXT to get the ship in order. I don't need top pump like "noclue".

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    • >>We need the short trend in declining delinquencies to get stronger in order to make a bunch of money for MXT and us.<<


      On your analysis is it a case of steady decline of delinquencies equals steady money increase, or is there an exponential effect tied up in these variables, especially declining d's.??

      • 1 Reply to thelastswaggerer
      • Come on botonist, give the guy a break. He is bullish and there is certainly ample evidence of why he should be. The stock traded below book value for one reason and really one reason only, namely that shorts felt Metris was an excellent BK candidate. That is no longer the case and now "reality" will eventually set in.

        Metris is righting the ship, though the shorts have ample ammunition to fuel their wolf crying. The portfolio is shrinking, so despite the fact that in real dollar terms the deliquent debt has shrunk, shorts can claim things are getting worse on a percetange basis. Unfortunately for the shorts, Metris didn't set its loan loss provisions based on a percentage basis, but rather on a dollar basis.

        Q2 is going to be the quarter that Metris rights the ship. There is little doubt about it now with the tax cut around the corner. Deliquencies in real dollar terms are doing to be down from Q1 levels and that means that Metris is well provisioned for loan losses. What does that mean? Simple, Metris can start pumping the bottom line instead of inflating loan loss provisions with quarterly losses. They have flexibility to manage earnings, so this gives the stock a pretty solid shot of beating earnings estimates quarter in and out. For example, Metris actualy beat earnings estimates in Q1, though the bozo agencies that track earnings didn't adjust their numbers appropriately (analysts did not take into accoutn some additional charges Metris lumped into their earnings, so their numbers were not low enough to be able to be equated with what Metris was reporting).

        We will have an interesting month in June. The biggest news will be how Metris manages to retire that $150M loan they have coming due. That news, more than anything else, is likely to drive the stock price before earnings in mid July.