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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

  • teknowiz teknowiz Feb 22, 2013 5:05 AM Flag

    How many CATALYSTS does this dam# stock need ?

    * A new CEO known as turnaround specialist
    * A new Vice chairman who owns a large stake
    * French government considering possible stake
    * Brazil considering a major telecom upgrade
    * SAC capital investment
    * Morgan stanley upgrade
    * Citigroup upgrade
    * much higher credit facility with lower of interest rate
    * Possible sale of subsea cable unit

    These are positive developments in just the past one month or so. And these are only major positive headlines. There are numerous contract wins, ALU technology leadership news etc

    What the h### are shorts waiting for?
    Why is this stock so d### manipulated?

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    • Right now it's trading more on a fundamental basis than anything. last quarter EPS was 5 cents in what is their best quarter of the year. The year before it was 25 cents. This quarter is slated to be -11 cents according to consensus estimates. what the market now wants to see is results. These loans they've obtained have mortgaged everything of value including their patents and U.S. operations. They bought the company time but so did their sale of the genysys unit which they burned through all the money in one year. As for me, I am bullish about ALU's future. My price target is 2.50~3.00 for a year from now. That's 100% gain from this level and a sign of what i believe is coming. But at the same time I can understand the market now wanting to see clear signs of that because the company has had a lot of false starts when it comes to restructuring over the last decade. I think that this year we'll be back to profits and by flow neutral levels and so the loans will work out as intended. But, that's a year from now as well and in between things can happen. At a minimum the company has GOT to cut what they have promised which is another 800M +. I think they then have to do more even to grow beyond 2.50 to 3.00. Our competitors aren't going to stand still either and they're already in better financial shape. In other words..any kind of a price war hurts ALU a lot more than either NSN or ERIC OR ZTE or Huawei right now. I think their new CEO appointment is a good one. I like even more i think that monty is now vice chairman. i think its a statement by the company that shareholders are going to take center stage in what is to come. But I ALSO think that they now have to prove themselves.
      Results are what is going to move the stock price from this point on.


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to tradestoxx11
      • I thought stock market is forward looking. The stock prices usually reflect prospects 6 months out.
        So unless world economy falls apart, how do some of these developments and ALU restructuring not bear any fruit is beyond me.

        Like I said, with ALU it is always glass empty. There is always negative media spin on anything that happens.