lower lows and lower highs XOM will retest $56.51 and fail. i can smell it now. here's why...
simply, there's no way Big Oil is recession-proof--not with cratering demand, massive oil glut of epic proportion, OPEC failed to cut production early, rising exploration and distribution costs, lack of demand for oil-related products (and services--reference Spitzer getting caught) and lastly no more cheap, endless supply of credit to fund high risk oil exploration at all costs to consumers. folks, anyone buying XOM above $35 is racing into a burning building. this will be a value trap alllllllllllll the way down.
You might want to look at just how much "lastly no more cheap, endless supply of credit to fund high risk oil exploration" credit XOM used. For that matter how much high risk exploration they undertook. Both are nada. (And over the last couple of years both were things XOM didn't due and they were criticized for. Maybe those execs at XOM ain't quite as dumg as many here were claiming.)
Maybe you are right today, for now, but this weakness is to be taken advantage of at some point. I think that xom is still generating reasonable earnings, and still big earnings, and what they could/might do is cut the exploration budget and simply buy barrels in the ground from weaker/smaller firms. This weakness could be the advantage of the decade for xom. certainly it will signal the bottom when xom makes a major acquisition, and it should come when the price of oil makes buying existing oil companies cheaper than exploration. 2-5 years from now xom might be the strongest big oil company by far. Very interesting to watch what they will do.