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Exxon Mobil Corporation Message Board

  • greedful_thing_s greedful_thing_s Dec 7, 2012 4:58 PM Flag

    Deflation Steamroller



    1) Surge in coal, natural gas, and industrial energy production & consumption worldwide
    2) Surge in world capital stock and productivity driven by rising industrial energy consumption
    3) Very low labor costs in areas with the biggest leaps in industrial energy consumption and price convergence caused by trade
    4) Rising population densities in urban areas, at the expense of rural & suburban areas, lowering the resource use, and goods use, of societies...
    5) High oil prices which speed the urbanization rate, making spatially diffuse, and resource intensive, suburban and rural living uneconomic. Crashing land values in rural & suburban areas are just the start.
    6) Technological growth driven along resource use reducing paths by high commodity prices.
    7) Rise of Big Business worldwide which promises to increase both the rate of technological growth, and the deployment of the abundant capital to the production of goods and services.
    8) The defeat of the pro-rural, pro-small business, anti-tax, anti-government coalition in America promises to bring further improvements to education, and public service provision, the practical effect of which will be to encourage big business dominance across the economy, reduce waste and duplication of services, and improve productivity.

    China has placed itself on an enormous treadmill where it must extract coal even more quickly just to sustain its economic momentum. Worsening terms of trade from falling manufactured goods prices and other industrial goods prices will force them to produce more and more at lower and lower prices, going forward. By tying their currency to the dollar they effectively make themselves the 51st U.S. state too as far as dollar based savings, dollar strength and prices is concerned. They will have to invest more and more in new technology to keep up with the technological arms race they are encouraging around the world with the cheap capital costs they are causing...

    There was a similar phenomenon in the 19th century, which hit a world already awash in capital, and reduced prices quite considerably over time.

    This topic is deleted.
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