to the longs remaining: myself, hjabl, beta, cooldog...thoughts
first off I find it interesting that the negativity seems to go away on up days but comes back in I told you so Manner on down days (fool etc). it also seems to be that we lose 1 long for every ten cent drop which is unfortunate.
in my technical analysis study history shows that stocks will double or even triple retest Lows and usually the second and third retest part 10 to 20 percent lower. also a lot of the time, stocks will come back to retest that low a full year later. from that point it usually goes parabolic and doesn't look back. this seems to be all playing out very textbook especially in comparison to ValueClick. initial public offering then stock drops 90 plus percent while they use the proceeds to merge and grow. from that point it is a trader's heaven with negativity at its highest.
I see us as being in stage 1 of this process. we are in the process of a second retest (lower). what's good about this as well is that the 200-day gets to be lowered faster and because of that when it gets to be just under 2 box in the next two to three months things will get very interesting since it will line up just right for Rosses projections. I envision this stock falling no further than 1.20 before making strong surges back to 2 by October at the latest. from that it is a 50 50 shot of it going up and never seeing these levels again. but if it does it will probably happen again next summer to shake out the very weak. at that point I fully expect it to hbe well above 5 by next fall and never really looking back. just remember how insane these prices can get...
Ed, I'm still long VELT. I haven't spent time on this board lately because I don't wish to revel in VELT's short-term misery. Nor do I wish to engage short-term market timers and VELT shorts in conversattion. I really don't have much to talk about with them. I'm a long-term investor, and I prefer to think about VELT's long-term opportunities. Notwithsatnding all of the negative chatter thrown at VELT, I still believe those long-term prospects will win out.
VELT clearly has some financial challanges between now and the end of the 2013. The greatest challanges, however, may well be from now until the end of the month. VELT's CEO is on record that the company should be cash flow neutral to positive for the second half of this year. If we make it through the second quarter without further dilution, I will take my already overly large position and expand it further. VELT's future is much brighter than is it's present.
I still emphatically believe that the new CEO (Jeff Ross), and the new COO (Mari Jean Baker) see long-term riches in this company. Otherwise, why would executives with the kind of pedigree of Mr. Ross or Ms. Baker join the company? I also believe that it is going to take sometime for VELT's turn around story to play out. In any event, I'm still long VELT and plan to be for the forseeable future.
re:"first off I find it interesting that the negativity seems to go away on up days"
True, but not for our long lost buddy w4gp. He hates this stock everyday.
re:"it also seems to be that we lose 1 long for every ten cent drop which is unfortunate."
Well, you may have lost a long or two over the last few days, but you picked me up and a few others in the trade off. It all balances out in the end. You are right this stock is very textbook as far as TA is concerned. I haven't lost a dime playing VELT so far and as long as the cards keep lining up, I don't see myself losing any in the near future either. I still intend to build a core position in VELT, but I think VELT still has a little more room to drop over the next couple of months before it bounces back to $2. This sector as you know has been taking a beating lately. Stocks such as FB,GLUU and ZNGA are all close to their respective lows.
So, for the time being, I will simply continue to trade VELT. Have a good one.
When we consider Velt and the sector, a comparison with MM is always helpful. For the prior 30 days:
so basically VELT loses by almost 50% against a peer that is still pretty weak itself. That said, if you are nimble enough to continue to trade VELT for profit, I'll continue to follow your thoughts and ideas closely.
Akamai at $0.83 surging up to 3, going back down to a buck, and finally going parabolic. yes I unfortunately got in a little early but what's done is done I refuse to sell for a loss while the story unfolds.