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Intevac Inc. Message Board

  • madisonwisschesse madisonwisschesse Feb 9, 2007 2:24 PM Flag

    Internet Thread Slanted Comments

    The Internet thread highly slanted the comments by Miller at BMC, not blindbat.

    While barely maintaining a hold on the stock, Miller disputed the 350 tool available market (with actual data) and warned investors that IVAC's orders are peaking and could significantly decline in 08 due to several factors.

    He also produced a calculation which indicated that 200 Lean tools plus 50 Anelva tools could produce enough disks to satisfy the industry's requirements in 2011.

    He also cautioned that IVAC's PE of 18 is well above the PE of disk drive stocks and their equipment suppliers and is also higher than the PE of most semi equipment suppliers.

    He called the 30% one day upside move after the company guided to 15% to 35% lower ERNs this year as "unprecedented".

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    • It's the shame that people make money on false information and that investment has been turned by Wall Steet traders and hedge funds into a game of tug-of-war where numbers dominate rather than the truth.

      While I am quite thankful about it, outside of some penney stocks, in 40 years of investing I have need seen a stock at this price level move up 30% in one day after management announces earnings will significantly drop.

      Don't apply any more logic to it than a market rigged by traders and hedge funds "with numbers" rather than investors.

      Don't get me wrong, I think Fairburn and Eddy have done an outstanding job in restoring IVAC. However, I do wonder if they are painting a brighter picture about the future of their tool sales for hard disks to keep investors in the stock before the imaging and semiconductor business picks-up.

      I will go back and listen again, but I do believe Fairburn told investors at the October conference call that Seagate would maintain its spending on media equipment this year, which is in direct contrast to his statement on Tuedsay that STX would trail Hitachi and Fuji in IVAC's business this year. I also find his 360 tool replacment market comments highly questionable.

    • You also took a bath when IVAC tanked last spring and that is why you use another ID now.

    • Thanks!

      Not the first time a Net rag selectively edits an analyst's comments.

      Don't let blindbat completely off the hook though, he tried to turn it into a buy recommendation.

      Are the BMC reports on IVAC available to the public on First Call? They usually take a few days.

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