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Pernix Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. Message Board

  • microcapvalueguy microcapvalueguy Jun 15, 2011 5:12 PM Flag

    PTX a balanced view

    I agree with some of the bearish comments on PTX, buy also think that at these levels there could be meaninful upside. My view-

    1) The core business was definetely overvalued at $10.50-12ish.
    2) Even with some unusual one time charges last quarter was very disappointing.
    3) To their credit, management owns a huge amount of stock and has to this day not sold a share. Based on the filling it seems as if management will sell some shares into a strategic offering which is why the stock is currently weak.
    4) Things like pr guy, rinky dinky analysts no one pays attention to and how they come public are not relevant (previous financials were audited, etc).
    5) Cedax will never be a 1st tier drug or top of mind, as would be expected by how how little they paid for it. However, initial sales were good and seem to definetley justify the low price.
    6) By all accounts lice product seems to be substantially better than what is currently avaiable.
    7) Theobromine could be the big fly in the ointment and why I would never short the stock here. A tier one bank was hired to monetize the asset and on the last call Cooper said there was "a lot of interest." A positive outcome, could easily represet hundred of millions of $ either upfront over time, which would translate in a double digit stock and make their core business far less relvant.

    Bottom line is core business is probably fairly valued here, but future events, most notably theobromine make it an attractive risk/reward.

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