We all know that apple goes up prior to earnings. Analyst put high expectations on earnings all due to apple sand-bagging expectations.
Then earnings come out. Apple beats and the sock typically gains about $12-$16 dollars.
However, because the expectations were so high, whisper and revenue aren't as good. So, we see a sell off in after hours.
Then within the next 4-5 days after, the stock retracts about another $15-$25.
Apple has followed this trend time over time.
Now, if they miss, it will be catastrophic to the price.
To buy at the 52 week highs is just insane.
Read the charts. Look at the technicals. You will save more and lose less money.
Your analysis is missing some particulars. Such as the fact that, despite analysts knowing about Apple sandbagging, they still have a terrible track record in estimating earnings.
While the cycle you describe is real, it has more to do with market sentiment regarding Apple's product positioning than whisper numbers or revenues. AAPL retracts only on profit taking following a run up when it looks as though there will be no new product intros to goose sales, or if margins look as though they may be compressed. That's not the case this quarter. Apple has new product in the pipeline for the September quarter.
History has taught me that AAPL's best performance has been in the 2nd half of the year. Look for a new all time high in anticipation of significant EPS growth in upcoming 4th and 1st fiscal quarters.
while your comments are clearly well-meaning, they are more for traders. and thanks for that. in my opinion, most of these folks are not trading. this explains why many shill so much on the upside and whine so on the downside.
History does have some good lessons.
1999 Dot com bubble
2005 Housing bubble
2011 Mother of all bubbles?
Hey it's all out in plain sight. Jeez the Fed is telling us they are printing money to prop assets... they just have a new fancy name for it, "quantitative" money printing. That's what they do when their normal rate tweaks no longer work...
Was cheap at $310. Back at $362 its at normal p/e levels when we were in bubble.
Its your money.
Remember that 85% of individual investors buy high and sell low.
At this level its just bad investing.
This will be a major "sell on news" event.
Totally agree. I'm staying out this time because of the debt crisis and moody down grading. The stock will fall in August to $330 and then rise to $360 in September with the Iphone 5 release. Not worth the risk right now to get in at these highs.
Apple has grown and continues to grow 11% PC share is going to 25% Mac only; last qtr by Apple grew Rev by 88%. Mean while stock has been pined for over 6 months.
AAPL is so cheap here it's crazy. Do your homework.
I hear Popping sounds; short popcorn dance.