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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • aea_42 aea_42 Jul 17, 2012 5:07 PM Flag

    AAPL: FYQ3 Numbers Too High, Says Morgan Stanley..warns that Street estimates for the quarter may be too high, at $37.5 billion and $10.38 per share in profit. Her own estimate is for $35.1 billion and $9.45 per share.


    July 17, 2012, 3:57 P.M. ET

    Huberty thinks the Street’s estimates for the iPhone and Apple’s Mac business don’t reflect the “seasonality” of those products in advance of their being refreshed by the company. Apple is expected to introduce a new iPhone this fall, and last month it updated its MacBook line of laptops.

    Huberty’s estimates are for 27 million iPhones sold last quarter and 4.1 million Macs, compared to what she describes as “high-20M iPhones” and “mid-4M Macs” Street consensus.

    However, she offers that if Apple delivers bettergross margin than the 43% that she is modeling, which is also Street consensus, it could push the earnings number to $10. That is possible if Apple had favorable component costs during the quarter.

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    • gggggggggggggggggg

    • israelmichel Jul 18, 2012 10:06 AM Flag

      who cares 738$$!!!!!!!!

    • last quarter katy huberty of morgan stanley "predicted" estimates were 34.33 billion in revenue and 9.63 eps. apple's "actual" reported numbers were 39.2 billion in revenue and 12.30 EPS. that means she underestimated revenue by nearly $5 billion and EPS by nearly $3.

      note, that this was not a one time event. she has consistently underestimated apple's earnings from 15-30% for several years now and typically places in the bottom 10 of over 50 analyst (pro and independent) in accuracy of prediction and even came in very last on several occasions.

    • Mr. Horace Dediu is the most-accurate INDEPENDENT APPLE INC. Analyst...and his numbers are much higher than the Morgan Stanley Analyst. Dediu's recent commentary and estimates for Fiscal Q3 are as follows:

      Myself, I believe APPLE will deliver an actual number between $11.28 to $12.15 EPS which equates to a 30% to 40% "beat" of APPLE's Company/Management guidance of $8.68 EPS for Fiscal Q3.

      At present, the Wall Street Consensus is ONLY $10.38 EPS; therefore, it looks very likely that the Concensus EPS will be beaten at the minimum with an actual of $11.28 delivered. And, APPLE usually does deliver a "beat" of Company Guidance. See below...

      APPLE "BEATS" their own Company Guidance consistently as follows:

      2010 Q1 Guidance = $4.80; Actual = $6.43;(Beat=40.0%)

      2011 Q2 Guidance = $4.90; Actual = $6.40; (Beat=30.6%)

      2011 Q3 Guidance = $5.07; Actual = $7.79; (Beat=53.6%)

      2011 Q4 Guidance = $5.50; Actual = $7.05 (Beat=28.2%)

      2012 Q1 Guidance = $9.30; Actual = $13.87 (Beat=49.1%)

      2012 Q2 Guidance = $8.50; Actual = $12.30 (Beat=44.7%)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • How accurate was the street last quarter. No one saw 35 million iPhones being sold.
      Remember during the conference call they said they are selling every iPad they can make!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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