As a long, I've seen these momentum shifts on the positive side too. They are just not sustainable; a simple look at the chart suggests a low around 550 should be it. We are talking about a company forecasting for a 11.50 quarter! And that's sure to be conservative. The fact remains, this stock has a way of getting overbought and oversold. But facts are facts, 125 billion in cash, divvy paying, with 20 plus growth that deserves a higher multiple than 10 on a forward basis. With all that said, there are a few things I would love to see. First, where is the marketing push for mini and 5? Samsung is building some nice buzz. Anyone see the lebron commercial for samsung? That is the kind of stuff that gets kids buzzing. Second, we need more clarity from cook on supply issues. Better to be transparent than blinside people. It will also help the street to more affectively come to a consensus estimate. Third, china....let's do this! What is the hold up? Let's go! Fourth, cash allocation. Let's either raise the divvy or offer a special divvy. While a split will temporarily scorch the shorts, it's not a strong fundamental move by the company. Lastly, get some damn swagger back. You are apple, stop playing defense and get on the offense. Jobs was a marketing genius. This crew is not. Why so many damn iPod commercials and no mini or steady 5's. My opinion, they remain behind the supply 8 ball and do not want to heavily push a product they cannot bring to market. Supply is my single greatest concern. Get it strait boys!!!!
550 floor is what I see on the charts, max.. The minute the multiple dips too far and outstrips growth for 2013 is the minute to pounce. I think we might just be there. Also, apple has a precedent of breaching the 200dma just to gain it back quickly. I would love another update from apple or fox conn that supply is improving considerably.
I am relaxed but simply stating facts. The holidays are nearly upon us... This stock needs a good showing this quarter. And for the record, I'm not a blind bull claiming "we'll see a 20 dollar snap back Monday! Or an ignorant bear calling for 250 dollars. The fact remains they need to get supply right, end of story.
Excellent post chilibill and i couldn't have said it better myself. Supply is definitely looking to be the main culprit here and Cook and company just ain't talking. China is the "key" to Apple's iphone5 success and they seem to be way too slow getting out of the gate here! In the interim what is going to keep Apple's p/s up until end of year?
As for your question regarding what can buoy the stock until year end? Simply put, pure fundamentals. At some point as the price retreats, the multiple compresses too far, given growth. That's when the big boys jump in. This stock trading near single digit multiples is absolutely insane. Nuts
The silence is deafening. Separately, we need to start seeing supply of the phone in stores. Until then I'm concerned this could keep earnings in check. I have a feeling though that they are spreading supply to many regions, like india, china, etc. Hoping actually.
Separately, time for cook to focus solely on operational build out and give jony Ive the keys to the ship. He is the guy closest to jobs in terms of bringing the wow factor to future apple products.