just when the short crowd became very comfortable, Barrons cost them dearly with positive article front page Monday edition, you just never know when to get comfortable.
Should pop the shares $5-7 on Monday, which funds will sell into hard. People don't realize how OVER owned this stock is. Think about it... 95% of analysts bullish. 95% of investors bullish. hedge funds and mutual funds have AAPL as top 5 position, with leverage.
Stock is overowned and priced for a 30% + earnings growth over the next 5 years. Earnings growth rate is in downtrend, valuation is half a trillion, everyone who ever wanted to buy has bought.
All it takes is a slight hiccup to cause funds to reduce position from top 5 to top 10, and all of a sudden you can cut the stock 30%.
Apple will be a buy soon... question is does it hit $480, $450 first?
If you're a mutual or hedge fund trying to beat your benchmark, and Apple is your #1 posiiton and it just dropped 20%, you are under severe pressure to reduce exposure and lock in gains or stem losses.
I think you won't bottom out till you see a single day mass liquidation event... maybe if $505 breaks, you see a stop loss liquidation down to $480 and it can suck in shorts at $500 that could be squeezed hard on a rebound over $525. That $520 level can be broken for a few days without hurting the long term trend.
Maybe I'm wrong, but so far puts have been very profitable for me. Im long the $500, $480 puts.
if we get that mass liquidation day I'll buy $520 calls
I can't blame them. If I was in a taxable account I would do the same. But once they reach their 30 day period to reinvest I would expect a large buyback at these lower values. The next 30 to 60 days will prove my point. It's 90% tax selling to avoid the cliff. Then katy barr the doors for a rebound.
Shorts will blow themselves out of the water as they race to cover to tax their tax gains before year-end. It's just a question of which day they start the process. No one would want to be caught short here once the tax gain seller pressure is off the stock going into what is likely a huge quarter.
Sentiment: Strong Sell