From Market share data one can calculate sales for the quarter
Anyone doing actual research on apple? Assuming the US market is growing 24 percent and looking at market share by country vs last year. Implies a 30 percent growth in sales vs last year of the countries we know about. That gets you to about 50m iPhone for the quarter.... Although there could be upside or downside with countries we do not know.
Any life out there ?
John 50 million is about all they can make and that represents 35% unit growth YOY. You are right on . Now we don't know how many Ipads and how big the margin hit will be but I am VERY comfortable in 17-18 dollar earnings and Apple is simply not priced for any growth so this could be a real shocker.
U.S market share grew by 50% over last year. Even if overall smartphone sales growth in the U.S were zero over the past year, apple would still have grown their U.S unit sales by 50% over last year. Let's say U.S smartphone growth were 25% over last year. Apple grabs 53% of the new 25%, or about 13%. We don't know the actual U.S sales numbers, but you get the picture.
53% + 13% = 63% U.S sales growth. We don't know the actual U.S sales number from last year's Q1 but let's say hypothetically that 20 of the 37 million iphones were sold in the U.S. A 63% increase is 20 x 1.63 = 32.6 million iphones in the u.s alone. Even with zero international sales growth, apple sells 50 million phones this quarter. 25% international growth and they sell 55 million(Likely scenario). Without the initial supply problems they would have exceeded 60 million iphones for the quarter.