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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Dec 29, 2012 6:14 PM Flag

    q113 Estimates

    Analysts all over the map. So, did my own numbers.

    If you reduce base-q112 numbers 7.1% to adjust for the 14th week in the quarter and simply apply the market growth rates for smart phones (40%) and iPads (50%) to the adjusted revenue and assume other product sales are flat, you get $56.3B in sales. This doesn't account for price erosion, however, it doesn't account for the major increase in iPhone market share in the U.S. nor more modest increases outside the US, nor does it account for any tablet market share increase due to the iPad Mini. These market share increases could push revenue towards $58B+ net of price adjustments.

    Since yields are apparently better than expected on the new products and high margin iPhone sales are stronger than expected due to market share, gross margin should exceed the guided 36%. If 40%, EPS is nearly $15 per share with a 25% tax rate and if no other expenses come in lower than forecast.

    So, I am estimating $56.3B to $58B in revenue and $14.78 to $15.25 in EPS based on these numbers. And, I am holding and continuing to average down on AAPL based on these expectations. If these are close, stock will be much, much higher after earnings than today and could repeat last years 50% to 70% run by spring, especially if we get reasonable guidance, closing in on a China Mobile deal and rumors, if not announcement, of an iTV. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Not sure where you account for increased international sales for the 100 country role out of iphone5.

      Eps looks to be 15+. Conservative. This will be followed up by new product announcement. Expected to paint 600 in Jan leading into earnings, after earnings we'll see a run up to pe of 14-16 like always. When BB10 comes out and flops it will be another catalyst for AAPL. We will get announcement of increased share repurchase, 20-50 billion worth, with q1 earnings report. Wall Street will get PPS price right for a few months next year at 600-800.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • longs are really desparate for some hope when they start hypothesizing earnings estimates.

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