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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 3, 2013 11:31 PM Flag

    What am I missing?

    How come there is so much negative sentiment against Apple? All Apple needs to do to beat last year's numbers is outproduce last year's numbers. Apple has 2 MAIN issues which are profit margins (44% tough to match) and the extra week last quarter. With large sales, I believe that Apple's profit margin will come in at 41.5% which ain't too shabby. However, iphone sales account for over 50% of AAPL's profits. Apple sold 37 million iPhones last year and will easily beat that this year. Apple should sell around 50 million (plus or minus 3 million) which is worth over $8 billion in revenue alone. Apple will obviously sell more total iPads this year (vs 15.5 million last year), but cannibalization remains the only question. Still, AAPL should sell at least 8 million minis which add $2.5 billion in revenue. These two products increase revenue by $10.5 billion alone so we are now at $46.3 + $10.5 = $56.8 revenues. I am guessing that iPod sales went down, but this should be negligible at maybe a $500 million loss. Assuming that Macs are a wash (despite new line up), my "others" category (including itunes) will undoubtedly be higher than last year. Still, I will NOT include these in my final numbers. I believe that my numbers are conservative, so upside potential may be huge as some expect Apple to sell 55+ million iPhones and 27+ million iPads. Remember, Apple has NEVER missed "guidance" in the modern era which stands at $52 billion.

    Please let me know what I am missing. Serious answers please. I even emailed Edward Zabitsky who has a $270 price target and "short" recommendation who only wished me luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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