So if they beat their own guidance by 20% that would be $14.10 per share. While that is a huge beat for most companies it will probaby not be enough here. Apple probably has the best fundamentals of any large cap stock there is.
Please provide the name of your so called analysts who is calling for $10.75 per share. There are very few out there who are right on Apple. A 7% drop in margin from last quarter? Really? Where did you pull that one from? To my knowledge Apple has never missed their own guidance. Problem is the so called analysts (like the ones you are referring to) have no clue where Apple is going. We will find out on the 23rd.
Assuming they deliver top and bottom lines v. analyst estimates, the most important number to their stock price this quarter will be gross margin and their guidance for gross margin. They simply can't deliver meaningful EPS growth in 2013 with a sub-40% gross margin.